Four rises in 2026

On Tuesday 29 September 2026 the Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Board announced at 2.30 pm that it had raised the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.60 per cent, effective 30 September. The decision was unanimous. It is the fourth rise of 2026. It puts the rate above the 2023 peak of 4.35 per cent and makes 4.60 per cent the highest cash rate since late 2011 ¹².

The Bank’s statement puts the widening Middle East war and global energy prices first. It then names AI-related global demand and pressure on domestic capacity. Its stated method is that “growth in aggregate demand needs to remain subdued for a period” ².

This article is the record. It sets down the 2025 and 2026 path from the Bank’s own cash rate table, statements and Minutes: every decision, the dates it was announced and took effect, and the vote. It gives the reasons in the Bank’s words, the forecasts the Board is steering by, what its statements do not mention (with the documents searched stated each time), what the Treasurer, the Prime Minister, the Opposition, ACOSS and Senator David Pocock said on the day, and the Board’s own case. It draws no conclusion the record cannot carry.

A note on dates. The Board announces its decisions at 2.30 pm, and the cash rate table lists the date each change takes effect, the following day ¹²⁴. This article gives both: announced on one day, effective the next.

01The decision

The Board announced the decision at 2.30 pm on 29 September. The cash rate table lists 4.60 per cent from 30 September, because a change takes effect the following day ¹. The Bank’s media release says: “At its meeting today, the Board decided to increase the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.60 per cent.” It adds: “Today’s policy decision was unanimous.” ²

The new rate is above the 2023 peak of 4.35 per cent. It is the highest since late 2011: the table shows 4.75 per cent until a cut effective 2 November 2011. The four rises of 2026 total 100 basis points from 3.60 per cent ¹.

The statement’s reasons open: “Inflation remains elevated and some of the upside risks flagged in August are materialising.” It says the three earlier rises of the year “have tightened financial conditions and the economy appears to be slowing. But inflation is still too high”, and that “a further tightening in financial conditions is warranted to support a return of inflation to target in a reasonable period.” It says the Board could go further, “including increasing the cash rate target further if needed”, and that the Board “is focused on its mandate to deliver price stability and full employment.” ²

The Board remains focused on ensuring that high inflation does not become embedded. To achieve this, growth in aggregate demand needs to remain subdued for a period to reduce capacity pressures and bring inflation back to target.

02The reasons, in the Bank’s words

The statement puts the war first: “The conflict in the Middle East has broadened and global energy prices are now much higher than had been assumed in the August forecasts.” It says: “Higher fuel prices have partially been passed through to prices of other goods and services. This inflation impulse is in addition to the effect of capacity pressures in the economy.” And it adds: “And there remains pressure on domestic capacity.” ²

It also names the artificial intelligence boom as a source of global price pressure: “AI-related demand is driving rapid growth in global prices for technology-related goods.” It says trading partners have grown faster than expected: “growth in Australia’s major trading partners has been stronger than expected, as the boost from AI-related investment has outweighed the adverse effects of the Middle East conflict.” ²

On prices at home, the Bank cites its business liaison: “Liaison indicates that firms are experiencing cost pressures and are either increasing the prices of their goods and services or looking to do so.” It adds: “Short-term measures of inflation expectations remain elevated.” The Bank also says recent inflation was stronger than expected ².

The statement also records “signs that growth in consumer spending is easing gradually as expected, although housing prices have fallen in most capital cities and new housing loans have declined noticeably.” Two sentences later, in the same paragraph, it says: “Meanwhile, growth in business investment and debt is strong.” Those are two of the Bank’s own sentences, set side by side here. They are not a finding by the Bank about who bears the burden of the rises ².

The Bank has said the same about business through the year. On 16 June: “Growth in business investment is strong and credit is readily available to both households and businesses.” On 11 August: “growth in business debt and investment is strong.” ⁶⁷ The August forecast table has business investment growth slowing from 6.5 per cent (June 2026) to 0.2 per cent (December 2028), which is consistent with the Bank expecting firms to feel the rises with a lag ¹⁵.

03How we got here

Before 2026. The cash rate was 4.35 per cent through 2024. It was cut three times in 2025, effective 19 February, 21 May and 13 August, to 3.60 per cent. That 2025 low had last been in force in March and April 2023. The earlier cycle took the rate from 0.10 per cent to 4.35 per cent in 13 rises, the first effective 4 May 2022 and the last effective 8 November 2023. The rate then held at 4.35 per cent until the cut effective 19 February 2025 ¹.

3 February 2026 (effective 4 February): 3.85 per cent, unanimous. The Board’s reasons were domestic. Inflation had “picked up materially in the second half of 2025”; “labour market conditions remain a little tight”; and “it is evident that private demand is growing more quickly than expected, capacity pressures are greater than previously assessed and labour market conditions are a little tight.” The Bank also said “part of the pick-up in inflation is assessed to reflect temporary factors” and that “the effects of earlier interest rate reductions are yet to flow through fully.” ³ That statement does not mention the Middle East, oil, fuel, gas or energy. It says global uncertainty “remains significant” ³.

The war came after that decision. The International Energy Agency dates the United States and Israeli air strikes on Iran to 28 February 2026, and the US Energy Information Administration records the “de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz” that followed ¹⁰¹¹. That was 25 days after the Board’s 3 February decision (THE RORT’s calculation from the two dates). Inflation was above the 2 to 3 per cent band before the war: underlying inflation was 3.4 per cent over the year to the December quarter 2025, and monthly headline CPI was 3.7 per cent in the year to February 2026 ¹³¹⁴.

17 March 2026 (effective 18 March): 4.10 per cent, five votes to four. The Board’s wording was: “Today’s policy decision was made by majority: five members voted to increase the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.10 per cent; four members voted to leave the cash rate target unchanged at 3.85 per cent.” ⁴

Today’s policy decision was made by majority: five members voted to increase the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.10 per cent; four members voted to leave the cash rate target unchanged at 3.85 per cent.

The March statement cited the war: “the conflict in the Middle East has resulted in sharply higher fuel prices, which, if sustained, will add to inflation.” It also recorded: “Business investment was above expectations and consumption was below expectations. Meanwhile, growth in unit labour costs declined.” ⁴

The Minutes give the four dissenters’ case. “A minority of members judged that the case to leave monetary policy unchanged at the current meeting was the stronger one. These members reiterated that inflation was too high and that a further tightening in monetary policy would probably be required.” But they “placed more weight on the weaker-than-expected consumption outcome and slowing in the growth in unit labour costs in the December quarter 2025”, and “felt there was merit in delaying any tightening of monetary policy until the potential effects of the current conflict in the Middle East become clearer.” ⁸ The minority’s dispute, on the Minutes, was about timing, not about the tool ⁸.

5 May 2026 (effective 6 May): 4.35 per cent, eight votes to one. “Today’s policy decision was made by majority: eight members voted to increase the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.35 per cent; one member voted to leave the cash rate target unchanged at 4.10 per cent.” ⁵ The statement said the Bank “sees underlying inflation peaking higher than was expected in February. It then declines as demand growth slows and capacity pressures ease in response to higher interest rates.” It added: “There are early signs that many firms experiencing cost pressures are looking to increase prices of their goods and services.” ⁵

The Minutes record the dissenter’s reasons. One member “placed more weight on the arguments for leaving the cash rate target unchanged, judging that capacity pressures prevailing before the conflict were somewhat less than the staff had assessed.” That member saw a higher risk of a prolonged conflict sapping demand, expected inflation to return to target without more tightening, and preferred to hold “while awaiting additional evidence on how the Australian economy would respond to the conflict”, noting that “this approach was consistent with that adopted by other central banks.” The majority said underlying inflation would stay above target “for an extended period” in a range of scenarios and that 4.1 per cent might not be enough, and most members judged that a rise would best balance the Board’s two objectives, “accepting that the shorter term trade-off between these had worsened.” ⁹

The same Minutes record the Board’s agreement that “monetary policy could not alter the near-term trajectory of inflation”, and that what it could do was limit the risk of “a broader and sustained lift in inflationary pressure” ⁹. At her media conference that day the Governor said: “Already we’ve seen a sharp increase in fuel and related commodity prices and this is already feeding through to inflation. The recent increases in interest rates will have no impact on this. What these increases do, however, is to help to contain the domestic inflationary pressures after the inflation due to oil and related commodity prices eases.” ³⁷

16 June 2026 (effective 17 June): hold at 4.35 per cent, unanimous. “The latest data show that headline and underlying inflation are still too high.” The unemployment rate “was higher than expected in April”, and “growth in demand needs to slow to reduce capacity pressures and help bring inflation back to target.” ⁶

11 August 2026 (effective 12 August): hold at 4.35 per cent, unanimous. The Board judged policy “somewhat restrictive”. It said inflation “is not expected to return to around the midpoint of the target range until late 2027 and there are upside risks to this projection”, and that “the disruption to global oil supply is adding directly to inflation”. It kept a further rise open, “including increasing the cash rate target further if upside risks materialise.” ⁷ It also said: “While the impact of the Middle East conflict on inflation has so far been less than expected, headline inflation is still too high.” ⁷

The inflation path. Annual CPI was 1.9 per cent in June 2025 and 3.0 per cent in July 2025, then 3.8 per cent in October and again in December 2025. It peaked at 4.6 per cent in March 2026, then ran at 4.2, 4.0, 3.8 and 3.5 per cent to July 2026. Trimmed mean inflation was 3.6 per cent in July, unchanged ¹². The cut effective 13 August 2025 came on data to June, when annual inflation was 1.9 per cent; this article does not examine what drove the rise in inflation from July 2025 ¹².

Update, 30 September 2026. The ABS published August CPI at 11:30 am AEST on 30 September, the day after the Board’s decision. Annual CPI was 4.0 per cent in the 12 months to August 2026, up from 3.5 per cent in the 12 months to July ⁵¹⁵². It is the first rise in the annual rate since March, when it reached 4.6 per cent: the run in the paragraph above, 4.6, 4.2, 4.0, 3.8 and 3.5 per cent, fell in every month to July (THE RORT’s reading of the ABS series) ¹²⁵². The CPI rose 0.4 per cent in the month of August in original terms, and trimmed mean inflation was 3.6 per cent over the year, unchanged from July ⁵². On fuel, the ABS said Automotive fuel prices rose 14.8 per cent in August, compared with a rise of 7.5 per cent in July, and were 13.5 per cent higher over the 12 months ⁵¹⁵². It put the August rise down to higher world oil prices and the unwinding of the remainder of the federal government’s fuel excise relief measures in August, where it had described July’s rise as driven by higher world oil prices and the partial unwinding of the same relief ¹²⁵¹. The ABS gives the two causes together; the ABS pages THE RORT read give no figure for the excise share of the 14.8 per cent. The ABS also reported Transport up 5.6 per cent over the year to August, due to higher automotive fuel prices ⁵¹.

04What the statements do not say

A word search of the body of the 29 September statement finds no “fiscal”, “government”, “budget”, “profit”, “markup”, “wage” or “rent”. The word “margin” appears once, in the phrase “at the margin”. That is an absence in one document. It is not proof of the Bank’s wider views ². Fiscal policy was raised with the Governor at her 11 August press conference; asked whether the slowdown came more from the Budget or from rates, she said: “I wouldn’t like to attribute a particular percentage to any.” ¹⁹ On 3 February she said she would not tell the government what to do with fiscal policy (“That’s not my business”), and on 5 May: “Fiscal policy has many more things that it can do.” She also said fiscal policy is “not a very nimble way to address inflation”, but that when governments are running up against capacity constraints “they do need to think about” ways to constrain demand ³⁷.

The search was widened. None of the six 2026 decision statements, the transcript of the 11 August press conference or the Outlook chapter of the August Statement on Monetary Policy contains “profit” or “markup”. The five statements before September also do not contain “margin”. Apart from the March and May Minutes, set out below, the Minutes, the other chapters of the Statement on Monetary Policy, speeches and research were not searched for those words ^2345671519.

The March and May Minutes do not use the word “fiscal” or discuss Australian fiscal policy as a response to inflation. The only references to public spending are that public demand was “broadly as expected” (March) and “rising budget deficits” among the global trends that may have lifted estimates of the neutral rate (May). Neither Minute discusses corporate profits or margins arising from the war: “profit” appears once in March, as “corporate profitability” of AI-exposed US equities, and not at all in May. The nearest material is the liaison on pricing: “members acknowledged the information from liaison that some firms were actively considering whether to raise prices and that some expected workers would begin to seek higher nominal wages.” ⁸⁹

These are scoped absences, stated as such. They record what these documents contain. They do not say what any member thinks about profits, government spending or wages.

05The forecasts the Board is steering by

The Bank’s August Statement on Monetary Policy, published before today’s rise, sets out the path the Board is steering by. Underlying inflation “is expected to remain above 3 per cent until mid-2027 before declining to the midpoint of the 2–3 per cent target range in 2028.” The table gives trimmed mean inflation of 3.6 per cent (June 2026), 3.3 (December 2026), 3.0 (June 2027), 2.6 (December 2027) and 2.4 (June 2028) ¹⁵. The 11 August statement said inflation would be around the midpoint only by late 2027; the Statement on Monetary Policy has it at the midpoint in 2028 ⁷¹⁵.

On jobs: “Subdued GDP growth will weigh on labour demand, with the unemployment rate forecast to increase gradually to 4.8 per cent by end-2028.” The forecast has unemployment at 4.4 per cent in June 2026, and GDP growth of 1.4 per cent over 2026 ¹⁵. The forecast has 4.5 per cent for December 2026 and 4.6 per cent for June 2027 ¹⁵.

The ABS recorded unemployment at 4.6 per cent in August 2026 (4.5 per cent in July). Over the year, the number of unemployed people rose by 80,000 (12.4 per cent) to 722,900, while employment rose by 238,100 (1.6 per cent) to 14,836,600. The ABS flags a survey method change and recommends the trend series, in which unemployment was also 4.6 per cent; it calls the August data “fit-for-purpose” ¹⁸. Unemployment is therefore already at the level the August forecast had for mid-2027. That is not the same as saying the forecast has been missed: the forecast is a quarterly average and the September quarter is incomplete. The July and August average is 4.55 per cent (THE RORT’s calculation from the two monthly figures) ¹⁵¹⁸.

On wages: the real Wage Price Index fell 0.7 per cent and real average hourly earnings fell 1.2 per cent over the year to June 2026, on the Bank’s table, with real wage growth forecast to turn positive from mid-2027 ¹⁵. The Bank also names public-sector wage deals and public demand as near-term pressures: public demand grew 3.6 per cent over the year to June 2026, against household consumption growth of 1.8 per cent ¹⁵.

The forecasts rest on a judgement about policy: “Financial conditions remain restrictive enough to keep growth below potential and for the labour market to ease gradually.” The assumed cash rate path “remains a bit above the top of the range of estimates of the neutral cash rate”, even as total employment keeps growing 1.1 to 1.4 per cent a year ¹⁵.

The August forecasts assumed “less than one full cash rate increase by the end of 2026, before a small reduction in the cash rate further out”. The forecast table takes unemployment from 4.4 per cent (June 2026) to 4.8 per cent (June 2028) while trimmed mean inflation falls from 3.6 per cent to 2.4 per cent. The Bank does not split the table by cause, so the 0.4 point rise in unemployment cannot be read as the cost of the rises ¹⁶. Analysis, not fact: the Statement does not say what starting rate the assumption is measured from. If it is read from the 4.35 per cent rate in force when the forecasts were made, today’s 25 basis point rise takes the cash rate beyond that assumption. That reading is THE RORT’s, not the Bank’s ¹⁶.

The Bank also treats part of the inflation as a supply shock: “Inflation is expected to ease over the next couple of years as somewhat restrictive financial conditions reduce capacity pressures in the domestic economy and the pass-through of higher costs related to the Middle East conflict are assumed to unwind.” ¹⁵ It has put a number on the indirect effect: conflict-related costs, excluding the direct effect of retail fuel prices, “contributed a bit more than 0.1 percentage points to trimmed mean inflation in the June quarter”, a little less than it expected in May, though “this estimate is uncertain”. Trimmed mean inflation, at 3.6 per cent, reflects “ongoing economy-wide capacity pressures and the pass-through of higher costs as a result of the Middle East conflict”, so trimmed mean is not a war-free measure ¹⁷.

06The Board’s case

The Board’s case, in its own words, has five parts. Each is set down here without comment, because the record is what this article is for.

First, firms are raising prices. “Liaison indicates that firms are experiencing cost pressures and are either increasing the prices of their goods and services or looking to do so”, and “Short-term measures of inflation expectations remain elevated.” ² Governor Michele Bullock told the House Economics Committee on 18 September that “many firms have passed input cost pressures arising from elevated fuel prices through to the prices of other goods and services.” ²⁰

Second, the pick-up began before the war. In February the Board said inflation had “picked up materially in the second half of 2025” ³, and underlying inflation was 3.4 per cent in the year to the December quarter 2025 ¹⁴. Bullock told the committee: “The increase in inflation partly reflects capacity pressures in the Australian economy, and the conflict in the Middle East has added to these inflation pressures.” She said labour market conditions “remain close to, but a little tighter than, full employment”, and put the unemployment rate at 4.5 per cent, which she called “low by historical standards.” ²⁰ The ABS August figure, released on 24 September after that statement, is 4.6 per cent ¹⁸. The March Minutes record the majority’s view that “developments in the Middle East would further reduce the already constrained supply capacity of the Australian economy” and add to inflation “under a wide range of scenarios”; the same majority conceded that the war’s effect on demand was uncertain, given Australia’s position as a net energy exporter ⁸.

Third, gradualism protects jobs. On 11 August Bullock said: “if we were just focusing on inflation and we weren’t focusing on employment and the economy more broadly, then we could possibly raise interest rates very substantially and induce a very big impact but get inflation down very quickly. The reason why we’ve got this sort of slightly more flexible mandate is to allow us reasonable time to get inflation back down and hopefully avoid some of those costs, particularly on the employment side.” ¹⁹

Fourth, waiting has a cost. On 28 July Bullock said: “Putting off a period of tight monetary policy today can mean higher rates and higher unemployment down the track.” ²¹ In November 2022 Governor Lowe said that bringing inflation back down “after it becomes ingrained in people’s expectations is very costly and almost certainly involves a recession”, and that in Australia and the United States in the 1970s and 1980s it took “a rise in the unemployment rate of at least 5 percentage points.” ²²

Fifth, the effects of earlier rises are yet to come. “Because monetary policy works with a lag, the full effects of recent rate increases are yet to be felt.” ²⁰

The Bank’s job is set in law. The Treasury Laws Amendment (Reserve Bank Reforms) Act 2024, in force from 1 March 2025, tells the Board to determine monetary policy in a way that, in the Board’s opinion, best contributes to “price stability in Australia” and “the maintenance of full employment in Australia” (section 9B). The Statement on the Conduct of Monetary Policy records an agreed goal of “consumer price inflation between 2 and 3 per cent.” ²³

07What was said on the day

The Treasurer, before the decision. On the morning of 29 September Jim Chalmers appeared on ABC News Breakfast, ahead of the Reserve Bank’s decision ²⁶.

The Treasurer, after the decision. The ABC’s live blog, in posts timed 3.02 pm, 3.12 pm and 3.18 pm AEST, carried his remarks. “Australian workers didn’t choose this war, but they are paying a hefty price for it,” he said, and the war is “making inflation linger for longer”. He said: “We take responsibility for our part of the fight against inflation. That’s why we’ve been managing the budget responsibility,” and “for every $5 of demand in our economy, four of those have been private demand, one has been public demand.” On productivity: “You don’t turn around a productivity challenge which has been entrenched for so long quickly in a couple of months.” ²⁷ FXStreet, publishing at 2.54 pm AEST, reported him saying: “Today’s interest rate rise was widely expected and anticipated, that doesn’t make it any easier for people.” ²⁸ No Treasury transcript of his Brisbane press conference was listed at 3.58 pm. The Final Budget Outcome, released by the Treasurer and the Finance Minister on 28 September, records headline inflation of 3.9 per cent through the year to the June quarter 2026 (a quarterly measure; the monthly annual figure for June was 3.8 per cent), “materially lower than the forecast of 5 per cent in the 2026-27 Budget”. The RBA had expected 4.8 per cent in May ¹⁷. The Final Budget Outcome says: “This reflects lower-than-expected petrol prices, and subdued pass-through of broader cost pressures from the Middle East conflict to consumer prices.” ³⁶ The Bank’s own sizing of the war’s indirect effect is in the section on forecasts above ¹⁷.

The Prime Minister, before the decision. In Adelaide on 29 September, in a press conference held before the announcement (the question put to him said “Potentially with another rate rise later on this afternoon”), Prime Minister Albanese said: “We understand that Australians are under financial pressure. We’ll continue to look at measures, but we’ll continue also to bear in mind that any measure we don’t want to have a further impact on inflation. And to bear in mind the fiscal position that that represents.” He said: “We’ve had two wars, to be fair, that have impacted on the price of fuel,” and “You might recall that we produced two budget surpluses.” He pointed to the 1 July tax cuts, free TAFE, Urgent Care Clinics and tripled bulk-billing incentives. Asked whether the government was “gaslighting” (Richard Holden’s word), he said: “What we’re doing is being straightforward.” ²⁹ Those surpluses were underlying cash surpluses of $22.1 billion in 2022-23 and $15.8 billion in 2023-24. The budget has been in deficit since: $10.0 billion in 2024-25 and $22.3 billion in 2025-26, with a deficit of $31.5 billion forecast for 2026-27 ³⁸.

The Opposition. Opposition Leader Angus Taylor, reported by Yahoo Finance’s live blog at about 3.25 to 3.30 pm, called it “a dark day, a tough day for hardworking Australian families with a mortgage”, and said: “Let’s be clear, we know this government is spending too much.” ³⁰ Shadow Treasurer Tim Wilson’s release says: “The Reserve Bank has been forced to raise interest rates on Australian families and small businesses for the 16th time under the Albanese Labor government because they can’t kick their spending and inflation addiction.” It says “households and small business will pay the bill” and gives repayment figures of “$120 a month” and “almost $4,600”, without stating their basis ³¹. The count of 16 is the Opposition’s claim; THE RORT has not checked it. Yahoo Finance noted that the hiking cycle “actually commenced under Scott Morrison” ³⁰.

ACOSS. Chief executive Cassandra Goldie, quoted in the ABC live blog: “Raising interest rates is creating unemployment by design, putting thousands of people out of work to slow the economy.” ²⁷ That is a reaction, not a statement of fact about unemployment. The ABC framed it as a response to the Governor’s comments on unemployment; that framing is the ABC’s. The Governor’s own words, at a CEDA event on 22 September, from the RBA’s transcript: “There’s no particular level at which I think we can get to. I think between 4.5 and 5 will probably take enough heat out of the labor market that it’ll ease pressure on inflation.” In the same answer she said that 4.5 per cent “at the moment” is “a bit tight”, and, for balance, that “having a job is really important” and “high unemployment is not great.” ³⁵

Senator David Pocock. The independent ACT senator posted a 40-second video on Facebook on Tuesday afternoon. Only its caption is quoted here; the spoken words were not transcribed. The caption reads: “Why is it always households getting stung with increased costs while massive multinationals bank wartime profits? Why aren’t the major parties talking about a windfall profits tax or backing the push for a 25% gas export tax ?! There is more we can and must do to stop price gouging and get a fair return from the export of our resources.” In the caption “bank” is a verb, meaning to pocket; the post does not name the banking sector. This article records the caption as one of the day’s reactions and does not assess its claims ³². Beside it, from the record: Woodside’s underlying profit for the half to 30 June 2026 rose 7 per cent, and Santos’s profit after tax fell 19 per cent, and its underlying profit was US$397 million against US$508 million a year earlier (all in US dollars; Santos blames one-off commissioning costs and cargo timing). Santos prices its LNG on oil with a three-month lag, so most of the war price falls in the second half; Woodside’s realised price rose 20 per cent, which it attributes to the war ³⁹. The Greens’ amendment calling for a minimum 25% gas export tax was lost in the Senate 13 to 35 on 12 March ³⁹. Every recorded 2026 division on a 25 per cent gas export tax that the desk found was lost, including a House vote on 2 June in which the Coalition did not vote ³⁹. (corrected 7 October 2026: ‘25 per cent’ added to this sentence. A 30 March Senate urgency motion for free public transport “paid for by a tax on gas exports”, lost 13 to 29, is not among the divisions counted; see Seven votes for a gas export tax, all lost.) The major parties have given their reasons. The Prime Minister said on 29 April, as reported by the ABC, that “The middle of a global fuel crisis is the worst possible time to jeopardise these partnerships, or the investment that underpins them.” In the Senate committee’s report of 7 May, Labor senators recommended that the Treasury or the Productivity Commission evaluate the proposals “After the current Middle East energy crisis has passed”, and Coalition senators said Australia “needs an increased tax take, not an increased tax rate.” ⁴¹⁴²

The first bank moves. Macquarie had announced changes by the afternoon. Its own help page says: “Macquarie is increasing its variable home loan reference rates by 0.25% per annum, effective 15 October 2026.” The page does not split owner-occupier and investor loans. The same page gives new ongoing savings rates from 15 October: 5.25 per cent up to $250,000; 5.05 per cent from $250,000.01 to $2,000,000; and 4.60 per cent above $2,000,000. They replace rates of 5.00, 5.00 and 2.75 per cent, rises of 25, 5 and 185 basis points. For a saver with a balance between $250,000 and $2 million that is 5 basis points, against the borrowers’ 25. The page shows no term deposit change. This is one lender’s schedule, not the market’s ³³. Across the market, on the RBA’s tables to July (before today’s rise), the average rate paid on household deposits and the average rate charged on outstanding owner-occupier variable loans each rose 0.7 points from December 2025 to July 2026, and the gap between them did not measurably widen at the one decimal place published. That compares one loan type with deposits and is not a bank margin ⁴⁰.

Correction, 30 September 2026. The paragraph above said that for a saver with a balance between $250,000 and $2 million the rise is 5 basis points, against the borrowers’ 25. That is too broad. The 5 basis points is Macquarie’s Savings Account ongoing rate only (5.00 to 5.05 per cent). Macquarie’s own release of 29 September puts its Transaction Account rate up from 2.75 to 3.00 per cent, 25 basis points, on every balance tier, including $250,000.01 to $2,000,000, from 15 October ⁴³. The release also gives the old and new Savings Account rates on one page (5.00 to 5.25, 5.00 to 5.05 and 2.75 to 4.60 per cent) ⁴³.

Update, 30 September 2026. The sentence “The page shows no term deposit change” is still true of Macquarie’s help page, and the words “term deposit” and “fixed” do not appear in its release ⁴³. But it leaves out what Macquarie did with term deposits in September, before the decision. Between its term deposits page of 1 September (14:15 AEST) and its page of 21 September (08:50 AEST), the Digital Term Deposit rates for $1 million or under, interest paid at maturity, rose by 5, 15, 15 and 20 basis points on 3, 6, 9 and 12 months, to 5.05, 5.20, 5.25 and 5.35 per cent; the day or days of the rise are not on the record ⁴⁴. That followed a cut of 5 basis points on the 6, 9 and 12 month rates between its pages of 1 August and 13 August, which savings.com.au reported on 5 August ⁴⁵. This is verified for the Digital Term Deposit only; its tables were unchanged at 5.17 am AEST on 30 September against the 21 September capture ⁴⁴, and none of the Macquarie pages THE RORT read gives a reason for these moves.

Update, 30 September 2026. The borrower side of Macquarie’s September also moved before the decision. Macquarie raised its fixed home loan rates twice: on its owner-occupier principal and interest table for loans up to 70 per cent of the property’s value, its own pages show the one-year fixed rate at 6.19 per cent on 13 August and 6.49 per cent on 30 September, the two-year at 6.14 and 6.59, the three-year at 6.09 and 6.59, and the four- and five-year at 6.29 and 6.64, net rises of 0.30 to 0.50 points, for new loans ⁴⁶. Media reports date the first rise to Tuesday 8 September, and the second was reported on 24 September ⁴⁷. Both sides belong to the record of the day: on the variable products announced on 29 September the middle Savings Account tier gets 5 basis points against 25 on the reference rates, and the Transaction Account 25; in September Macquarie also moved its Digital Term Deposit and new fixed loan rates up. These are advertised rates, and THE RORT draws no conclusion about Macquarie’s margin from them.

Correction, 4 October 2026. The paragraph above gives Macquarie’s net fixed-rate rises since 13 August (0.30 to 0.50 points) without saying that they followed cuts. On 5 June Macquarie cut its one- to five-year fixed rates by 0.25, 0.40, 0.50, 0.35 and 0.45 points, from 6.44, 6.54, 6.59, 6.64 and 6.74 per cent, Canstar reported, to 6.19, 6.14, 6.09, 6.29 and 6.29 per cent, the same levels its own page showed on 13 August ⁵⁸. Its rates on 30 September, unchanged on 3 October, of 6.49, 6.59, 6.59, 6.64 and 6.64 per cent are 0.05 points above the pre-June levels at one and two years, level at three and four years, and 0.10 below at five (THE RORT’s arithmetic) ⁵⁸⁴⁶. Most of the September rises reversed the June cuts. The figures and dates in the paragraph above stand; this adds the context they lacked.

Update, 30 September 2026. Macquarie was not the only lender to announce on 29 September; the paragraph headed “The first bank moves” names only Macquarie. Teachers Mutual Bank Limited announced that it will raise interest rates by 0.25 per cent a year across its variable savings products from Thursday 1 October 2026, and across its variable home loan products from 8 October 2026, in all five of its retail brands ⁴⁸. On Macquarie’s side, Ben Perham, its Head of Personal Banking, said: “With the RBA confirming another rate rise, we’re letting our customers know we’ll be lifting our variable home loan rates, as well as the variable rates available on our transaction and savings accounts. For any customers concerned about making their home loan repayments, we encourage them to get in touch, as financial assistance may be available.” ⁴³

Between 4.44 pm and 4.46 pm AEST THE RORT checked the four major banks’ websites. None had announced a change to variable home loan, savings or term deposit rates. CBA’s home loan page still showed 5 May 2026, and its savings page said: “we’re currently reviewing the interest rates for savings products”. Westpac said its rates were “currently under review”. NAB’s home loan page still showed 3 February 2026. ANZ said it was “reviewing its home loan and residential investment loan interest rates”. Whether each big four bank passes the rise to borrowers and to savers is not yet known ³⁴.

Update, 30 September 2026. THE RORT re-read the four major banks’ own pages between 4.59 am and 5.00 am AEST on 30 September. None had announced a decision on the pages read. CBA’s home loan page still showed 5 May 2026, and its savings page, dated 29 September, still said “we’re currently reviewing the interest rates for savings products”; its home page carried an undated banner, “The Reserve Bank of Australia has increased the cash rate. We’re reviewing our rates and will share an update soon.” (when it first appeared is not known). Westpac’s page, dated Tuesday 29 September, still said its interest rates were “currently under review”. ANZ’s page, dated 29 September, said it was reviewing its home loan and residential investment loan interest rates. NAB’s home loan page still showed 3 February 2026, and its news page had nothing dated 29 or 30 September ⁴⁹. The Australian Banking Association’s news page and feed carried nothing on the rise; the newest item was dated 21 September ⁵⁰. Term deposit pages were not re-read. Whether each big four bank passes the rise to borrowers and to savers is still not known as at that time.

Update, 30 September 2026, evening. THE RORT re-read the four major banks’ own pages and releases between 5.40 pm and 5.43 pm AEST on 30 September. All four had announced a rise of 0.25 per cent a year in variable home loan rates, effective 9 October 2026: CBA ⁵³; Westpac, for new and existing customers ⁵⁴; NAB ⁵⁵; and ANZ ⁵⁶. That is one day after Teachers Mutual Bank Limited’s 8 October ⁴⁸ and six days before Macquarie’s 15 October ⁴³. Of the four, only Westpac had stated a savings rate change: its Westpac Life total variable rate with bonus interest rises 0.25 per cent a year to 5.25 per cent, effective 9 October ⁵⁴. CBA’s savings page, dated 29 September, still said it was “currently reviewing the interest rates for savings products” ⁵³; NAB says it “regularly reviews its savings and deposit rates” ⁵⁵; ANZ says it “continues to review other interest rates” ⁵⁶. No term deposit change was stated by any of the four. The Australian Banking Association’s news page carried nothing on the rise; its newest item, dated 30 September, was on card surcharging ⁵⁷. Whether each big four bank passes the rise to savers, beyond the Westpac Life rate, is not yet known as at that time.

The Governor. The Governor’s media conference follows each decision ²⁴. The RBA’s transcript had not been posted at 4.08 pm, and this article does not quote press reports of the conference. When the transcript is posted, its text will be added here as a dated Update.

Correction, 7 October 2026. The paragraph headed “The Treasurer, before the decision” quoted Jim Chalmers on the morning of 29 September: “Our inflation right now is not the fault of Australian workers” and “Australians are already paying a very hefty price for developments on the other side of the world.” Its reference ²⁶ was the index of the Treasurer’s transcripts, not a transcript. THE RORT could not find the transcript or a report carrying those words, so both quotations have been removed. The paragraph now says only that he appeared on ABC News Breakfast before the decision, as The Nightly reported ²⁶. His remarks after the decision, in the next paragraph, are unchanged.

08What to watch

30 September. The rise takes effect ¹. The ABS publishes August CPI at 11.30 am, the first CPI print after the decision. The annual rate was 3.5 per cent in July ¹²²⁴.

13 October. The Minutes of the 29 September meeting are listed on the RBA’s release calendar for 11.30 am. The RBA’s footnote says Minutes are released two weeks after each Board meeting ²⁴.

28 October. The ABS publishes September CPI with the September quarter figures at 11.30 am AEDT ²⁴. The Bank had itself forecast that the end of the fuel excise cut would lift September-quarter inflation: “The roll-off of the fuel excise reduction in July and August is expected to boost retail fuel prices and quarterly headline inflation in the September quarter.” ¹²¹⁵ The Supplementary Budget Estimates hearing of the Economics Legislation Committee (Treasury portfolio) sits on 28 and 29 October, and the RBA’s attendance is not yet posted ²⁵.

3 November. The next Board decision, at 2.30 pm, followed by the Governor’s media conference ²⁴. THE RORT will repeat the word search on the statement: fiscal policy, profits, markups, wages and rents, and the war’s pass-through.

12 November. The House Economics Committee’s Review of Australia’s four major banks lists its next hearing ²⁵.

25 November and 8 December. ABS October CPI on 25 November, and the last Board decision of 2026 on 8 December at 2.30 pm ²⁴.

The Governor has committed, in the Statement on the Conduct of Monetary Policy and not in statute, to appear twice a year before the House Economics Committee. She appeared before it on 6 February and 18 September 2026, and before Senate Estimates on 4 June 2026 ²⁵.

If the Reserve Bank, the government, the Opposition or any bank wants to reply to anything in this article, write to corrections@therort.com.au. The reply will be published in full as a dated Update.

If it’s a rort, we cover it.