THE RORT · THE INFLATION RORT · ARTICLE 12 / 20READING
CASE FILE · THE INFLATION RORTARTICLE 12 / 20By The Rort · 29 September 2026 · updated 4 October 2026 · therort.com.au

Who pays for the rises

On the same hypothetical $600,000 loan, four 2026 rises add about $364 a month, Canstar projects: about 8.4 per cent of a $1,000-a-week gross wage, and 0.44 per cent of the Governor’s base salary, on THE RORT’s arithmetic. Renters feel l…

Bank (ADI) profit after tax if the 2025-26 pace holds, since 1 July 2026 · MODELLED, not measuredA$11,061,643,835
Reading time27 min
THE RORT STANDARDPublished before 1.0
WHO PAYS: LIVING COSTS, AND ONE RISE ON TWO INCOMES LIVING COSTS, 12 MONTHS TO THE JUNE QUARTER 2026 (ABS) AGE PENSIONERS 4.7% PENSIONERS AND BENEFICIARIES 4.6% SELF-FUNDED RETIREES 3.8% EMPLOYEES 3.7% GROUPS NAMED IN THE ABS RELEASE TEXT JUNE QUARTER ALONE EMPLOYEES +1.5%, THE LARGEST OF ANY GROUP. MORTGAGE INTEREST CHARGES +8.2%. ONE RISE, TWO INCOMES: THE SAME HYPOTHETICAL $600,000 LOAN FOUR 2026 RISES: +$364 A MONTH = $4,368 A YEAR CANSTAR PROJECTION. OWNER-OCCUPIER, PRINCIPAL AND INTEREST, 25 YEARS REMAINING. $52,000 GROSS ($1,000 A WEEK): 8.4% $987,132 BASE SALARY (THE GOVERNOR, 2024/25): 0.44% METHOD: $364 X 12 = $4,368. $4,368 / $52,000 = 8.4%. $4,368 / $987,132 = 0.44%. THE RORT'S ARITHMETIC. GROSS, BEFORE TAX. ONE HYPOTHETICAL LOAN APPLIED TO TWO INCOMES; IT DESCRIBES NO REAL PERSON'S LOANS OR FINANCES. THE RORT · SOURCE: ABS SELECTED LIVING COST INDEXES; CANSTAR; RBA ANNUAL REPORT 2025
Living-cost rises by household type, and the four 2026 rate rises on one hypothetical $600,000 loan set against two very different incomes (THE RORT’s arithmetic).

On Tuesday 29 September 2026 the Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Board raised the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.60 per cent, unanimously, the fourth rise of 2026 1. The new rate takes effect on 30 September 2. The four rises total 100 basis points from 3.60 per cent, and 4.60 per cent is above the 2023 peak of 4.35 per cent and the highest since late 2011 2.

Who pays for that? This article follows the cost on the record: the repayment on a mortgage, the rise in living costs, and the job cost. It rests on the Reserve Bank’s own research, forecasts and words, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) indexes and labour force data, a few attributed private sources, and labelled arithmetic by THE RORT. Where THE RORT has done the sum, the method is shown.

The Bank’s best defence gets its own section at the end, in its own words. The charge is narrow. The rise is a cash cost to borrowers and a living cost to the households the ABS measures; the Governor has said the Bank expects that a period of subdued growth in the economy will be required to bring inflation down; and the Bank’s own forecasts have unemployment rising.

Fig. 01 / Where the rise goes, from the cash rate to the household
  1. Reserve Bank
    Raised the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.60 per cent, the fourth rise of the year
    the four rises together, from 3.60 per cent
    100 basis points
  2. The big four banks
    All four announced a rise of 0.25 per cent a year in variable home loan rates, effective 9 October
  3. The repayment
    Canstar's modelled owner-occupier: a $600,000 loan, principal and interest, 25 years remaining
    the September rise
    $91 a month
    the four rises of the year together
    $364 a month
  4. Living costs
    Employee households recorded the largest rise in living costs in the June quarter, as banks passed on the February, March and May rises
    employee households' living costs, June quarter
    1.5 per cent
    mortgage interest charges, which the ABS says largely drove it
    8.2 per cent
The same loan, set against different incomes
A hypothetical earner on $1,000 a week
Gross, before tax. Illustrative, not a claim that a lender would approve the loan
of a $52,000 gross income goes on the $4,368 a year
8.4 per cent
The Governor
Base salary of $987,132 in 2024/25, before superannuation and leave
of base salary goes on the same $4,368 a year
0.44 per cent

Stages are schematic. Repayment figures are Canstar's projection for a modelled loan, not any real household; the income comparison is THE RORT's arithmetic on one hypothetical loan.

Stated in: the opening, §01, §02, §03

Fig. 01Source: the article text, each mark cited to its sentenceAs of 2026‑09‑29Hand-curated

01The repayment: four rises, one mortgage

Canstar’s projection for the 29 September rise assumes an owner-occupier making principal and interest repayments with 25 years remaining on their loan term in February 2026, at the average variable rate, with banks passing the rise on from the following month. On a $600,000 loan the September rise adds $91 a month, and the four 2026 rises together add $364 a month. On $500,000 the four add $303 a month; on $750,000, $454; on $1,000,000, $606 3.

Two things about those figures. They are Canstar’s projection, not a bank’s announcement: when the desk checked (below), the big four had not announced any change. And they describe a modelled owner-occupier, not any particular household.

In the Reserve Bank’s indicator lending rates table (F5), every advertised bank variable housing rate rose by exactly 0.75 points in the months of the three rises to May (25 basis points each in February, March and May): the standard owner-occupier rate went from 8.02 per cent in December 2025 to 8.77 per cent in August 2026 4. The average rate actually charged on outstanding owner-occupier variable loans, which the Bank publishes separately (table F6), rose 0.7 points, from 5.5 per cent to 6.2 per cent, between December 2025 and July 2026 5. Table F6 is published to one decimal place.

Why the cash rate reaches Australian repayments quickly is a matter of the Reserve Bank’s own record. It says, on the Bank’s graph of major banks’ housing credit, the share of outstanding housing loans with fixed rates fell to “a historical low of less than 5 per cent in 2025”, and that a lower fixed-rate share “increases the sensitivity of household cash flows to changes in interest rates, increasing the strength of monetary policy transmission through that channel” 6. Its February 2026 Statement on Monetary Policy said that “less than 5 per cent of new and outstanding mortgages are on fixed-rate terms”, and its May 2026 statement: “Cash rate increases can take up to three months to flow through to minimum required variable-rate mortgage payments.” 7

Abroad the structure differs. The Bank’s Christopher Kent said in November 2024 that fixed rates averaged around 20 per cent of Australian mortgages over two decades, mostly fixed for two years or less. Australia and Norway have over 80 per cent of mortgages at variable rates; in the United States over 80 per cent is long-term fixed. Australian fixed periods are about two years, against five in the United Kingdom and Canada and 30 in the United States (data from 2023 and 2024) 8. Where rates are fixed for longer, the hit is delayed, not avoided: the Bank of England’s July 2026 Financial Stability Report projects a little over 5 million UK households will see their repayments increase by the end of 2028, and says nearly 750,000 households paying less than 3 per cent will roll off fixes in 2026, for an average increase of £170 a month 9.

Between 4.44 pm and 4.46 pm AEST on 29 September the desk re-checked the big four banks’ pages. None had announced a change to variable home loan, savings or term deposit rates. CBA’s savings page said “we’re currently reviewing the interest rates for savings products”; Westpac said “our interest rates are currently under review”; ANZ said it was “reviewing its home loan and residential investment loan interest rates”; NAB’s home loan page still showed 3 February 2026 10. Macquarie, which had announced, says on its own page: “Macquarie is increasing its variable home loan reference rates by 0.25% per annum, effective 15 October 2026” 11.

Update, 30 September 2026. The desk re-read the big four banks’ pages between 4.59 am and 5.00 am AEST on 30 September, and the statement above that they had not announced any change still held on the pages read: CBA’s home loan page still showed 5 May 2026 and its savings page, dated 29 September, said “we’re currently reviewing the interest rates for savings products”; Westpac and ANZ, each dated 29 September, said they were reviewing their rates; NAB’s home loan page still showed 3 February 2026 44. Term deposit pages were not re-read. Two lenders the desk has verified have announced dates for variable home loans: Macquarie, from 15 October 42, and Teachers Mutual Bank Limited, from 8 October across its five retail brands, with repayments changing on or after 1 November 2026 43. Teachers Mutual Bank Limited’s own example is about $62 a month more on a $400,000 loan over 25 years at 6.00 per cent 43, and Canstar’s is $91 a month more for the September rise on $600,000 3: between $15 and $16 a month for each $100,000 in both (THE RORT’s arithmetic).

Update, 30 September 2026, evening. Between 5.40 pm and 5.43 pm AEST on 30 September the four major banks’ own pages and releases showed that all four had announced a rise of 0.25 per cent a year in variable home loan rates, effective 9 October 2026: CBA 47; Westpac, for new and existing customers 48; NAB, on its standard variable home loan rates 49; and ANZ, on its home, residential investment and line of credit home loans 50. That is one day after Teachers Mutual Bank Limited’s 8 October 43 and six days before Macquarie’s 15 October 42. Only ANZ gives a dollar figure: about $79 a month more on a $500,000 owner-occupier loan with principal and interest repayments 50, which is between $15 and $16 a month for each $100,000 ($15.80; THE RORT’s arithmetic), in the same range as Teachers Mutual Bank Limited’s example 43 and Canstar’s 3. CBA, Westpac and NAB give no repayment figure 474849.

Update, 4 October 2026. NAB’s 0.25 is the whole of its announced variable home loan rise: NAB’s release and customer notice state a 0.25 percentage point rise for its variable home loans, and neither states a larger rise for any home loan 51. The larger NAB figures reported since 2 October are for other products. Between 14 September and 2 October NAB raised its owner-occupier principal-and-interest fixed rates by 0.35 to 0.47 percentage points, and investor fixed rates by 0.30 to 0.45, in two steps; owner-occupier interest-only fixed rates rose 0.15 to 0.25. These rates are for new loans 52. Those rises followed NAB’s 22 July cuts: 0.05 points in its one-year owner-occupier rate and 0.20 in its two-year, to 6.34 per cent, and 0.15 points across its investor fixed rates; at 6.81 per cent its two-year owner-occupier rate is 0.27 above its level before the cut, 6.54 per cent 53. NAB’s credit card purchase rates rise by 0.50 to 1.50 points from each customer’s first statement after 1 October, under changes that were public for its Rewards and frequent flyer cards by 28 July 54. On THE RORT’s arithmetic, a new $600,000 loan over 30 years, principal and interest, fixed for two years at NAB’s lowest two-year rate, costs $3,915.55 a month at 6.81 per cent from 2 October, against $3,729.50 at 6.34 per cent on 14 September; at NAB’s two-year rate before its 22 July cut, 6.54 per cent, it would have been $3,808.21, so measured from there the rise is $107.34 a month 53; that is a different loan from Canstar’s 25-year variable example above 52. A new article in this series, Above the 0.25, sets out what NAB raised and what it did not, the funding test and NAB’s savings rates.

02One rise, two incomes

The question this section answers is whether a rate rise hurts someone on $1 million as it hurts someone on $1,000 a week or less. A rise is a cash cost to a borrower, so the fair test is to set the same cost against two incomes.

Take one hypothetical loan: $600,000, owner-occupier, principal and interest, 25 years remaining. Canstar projects that the four 2026 rises together add about $364 a month to repayments on it 3. That is $4,368 a year.

THE RORT’s calculation, with the method shown: $364 x 12 = $4,368. $4,368 / $52,000 (a hypothetical earner on $1,000 a week, gross) = 8.4 per cent. $4,368 / $987,132 (the Governor’s 2024/25 base salary) = 0.44 per cent 12.

Read that with its conditions. It is the same hypothetical loan applied to two incomes, both gross, before tax. It describes no real person’s loans or finances. A $600,000 loan on $52,000 a year is illustrative, not a claim that a lender would approve it. And a percentage of gross income is not a measure of hardship on its own: it does not show tax, savings, buffers or any other cost.

The pay figures are the Reserve Bank’s own. The Governor’s total remuneration in 2024/25 was $1,195,275: base salary $987,132, other benefits $31,457, superannuation $132,457 and long service leave $44,229 12. THE RORT sets base salary, not the total package, against a wage; the ABS earnings series exclude employer superannuation 13.

For scale, the ABS puts median employee earnings in main job at $1,425 a week in August 2025 (released 12 December 2025). In May 2026, full-time adult average weekly ordinary time earnings were $2,083.70 (seasonally adjusted, up 3.7 per cent) and all-employee average weekly total earnings were $1,579.20 13. The $1,000-a-week figure used above is a round hypothetical, below each of those.

The other side on pay. No bonus was paid to the Governor or to any other key management person in 2024/25: the annual report’s Bonuses column shows a dash for each 12. And the Remuneration Tribunal decided on no adjustment for public offices in its jurisdiction from 1 July 2026, saying that the approach “will result in a reduction in real remuneration” 14. Whether that freeze applies to the Governor’s package, which is set by the Governance Board inside a Tribunal band, was not confirmed.

03The rise as a living cost

The ABS’s Selected Living Cost Indexes for the June quarter 2026, released on 5 August, list the policy instrument itself among the costs households carry.

Mortgage interest charges rose due to banks passing on the RBA’s cash rate increases in February, March and May to both fixed and variable rate home loans.

Employee households recorded the largest rise in living costs that quarter, 1.5 per cent, and the ABS attributes it largely to an 8.2 per cent rise in mortgage interest charges. It adds: “The remaining impact will be seen in the September 2026 quarter.” 15

8.2%
Rise in mortgage interest charges in the June quarter 2026, which the ABS attributes to banks passing on the February, March and May rises. It drove employee households’ 1.5 per cent living-cost rise, the largest of any household type that quarter. Over the year, age pensioners’ costs rose most (4.7 per cent).
Source · ABS Selected Living Cost Indexes, June quarter 2026 (5 August 2026)

The quarter and the year differ. Over the 12 months to the June 2026 quarter the indexes rose between 3.7 and 4.7 per cent: age pensioners’ costs rose most (4.7 per cent, with housing up 10.8 per cent), then pensioners and beneficiaries (4.6 per cent), self-funded retirees (3.8 per cent) and employees (3.7 per cent) 15. Employee households were hit hardest in the June quarter, not over the year.

The Governor has made a different point about the same experience. On 11 August she said people with mortgages “see the cost of their mortgages going up, and therefore their cost of living goes up. And they’re conflating”, and: “they’re saying cost of living going up is inflation. They’re actually not the same thing. But I get why people think th[at]” 16. What the ABS records is the thing she describes: banks passing the Bank’s rises on to home loans, and the rise showing up in households’ living costs 15.

04Who has a mortgage, and who gains

The latest official tenure figures are from 2019-20: 37 per cent of households owned with a mortgage, 29 per cent owned outright and 31 per cent rented. Owners with a mortgage spent 16 per cent of income on housing costs, renters 20 per cent 17. The 2021 Census counted 35 per cent of occupied private dwellings owned with a mortgage, 31 per cent owned outright and 30.6 per cent rented 18.

There is nothing newer from the ABS’s housing-cost survey. It cancelled the 2020-21 and 2021-22 surveys because of COVID, and will not release the 2023-24 results because of data collection issues; results from the 2025-26 survey are expected from mid-2027 19. The desk found no published figure for the share of households with a mortgage in 2026. A mortgage share is not a household share, and a headline about borrowers is not a headline about everyone.

The Reserve Bank estimates that a 100 basis point rise lowers total household disposable income by around 0.2 per cent, an estimate for the September quarter 2024, before the 2026 rises. It finds the reduction in cash flows is highest on average for households aged 30 to 54 20.

By income the picture is mixed, and the Bank says so. “The cash flows of higher income households tend to fall in aggregate when the cash rate increases”, because many of them have mortgages, while lower-income households gain in aggregate, because more of them are renters and outright owners. But inside the group with a mortgage the order reverses: “Looking just at households with housing debt, the impact of interest rate increases on disposable income is greater for lower income households”, who also have thinner buffers 20.

Outright owners, about a third of households, gain income when rates rise. “For the median outright homeowner household, the size of this increase is only around one-third of the decrease in cash flows experienced by the median mortgagor household”: a comparison of medians, not of totals. Many older households own outright, and the Bank says this group “typically benefit from higher interest rates” 20.

Savers earn more too. The Bank’s Assistant Governor Christopher Kent said in October 2023: “When interest rates go up, households pay more on their debt and earn more on their savings” 21. The average rate households were paid on all outstanding deposits rose from 2.8 per cent to 3.5 per cent between December 2025 and July 2026, and on at-call household balances from 2.5 per cent to 3.2 per cent 22. Those are averages across products.

05Renters: little direct effect, twice the stress

The Reserve Bank’s research says renters “tend to have much lower levels of both assets and debt, meaning changes in interest rates have very little direct effect on their cash flows” 20. That is half the finding. Its Financial Stability Review says lower-income households, many of them renters, are more likely to be in financial stress: in 2024, “the share of renters experiencing at least one incident of financial stress was around two times that of owner-occupiers” 23. The two halves belong together.

The Governor made the same point on 3 February 2026: “it’s not just people with mortgages, renters are often struggling as well, inflation is what’s caused them lots of trouble. It’s the price level. The price level has gone up 20 to 25 per cent over the last few years” 24. The 20 to 25 per cent is the Governor’s figure, not an ABS figure.

Rents rose 3.6 per cent over the 12 months to July 2026, the same rate as to June and May, and close to headline consumer price inflation of 3.5 per cent 25.

Update, 30 September 2026. The ABS published August CPI on 30 September. Rents rose 3.6 per cent over the 12 months to August 2026, the same rate as to July, while headline CPI rose 4.0 per cent, up from 3.5 per cent in July 4546. Against the August headline figure, rents are 0.4 percentage points below it (THE RORT’s subtraction); the comparison above, close to headline, is July’s.

Whether landlords pass rate rises on to renters is a question the Bank has studied. Its research found that, on average, “for every dollar increase in their mortgage interest costs, investors increase their rents by one cent”, and at most three cents in rising-rate periods, and concluded: “Overall, we find limited evidence that investors pass-through changes in their interest costs to their rents” 26. Two limits apply. The estimates use tax data for 2006-07 to 2018-19, and the Bank says pass-through may be higher when vacancies are very low, “as is currently the case” 26.

06Jobs: the forecast and the count

The Reserve Bank’s August 2026 Statement on Monetary Policy forecasts unemployment rising from 4.4 per cent in June 2026 to 4.8 per cent by end-2028, and GDP growth of 1.4 per cent over 2026: “Subdued GDP growth will weigh on labour demand, with the unemployment rate forecast to increase gradually to 4.8 per cent by end-2028” 27.

The Bank publishes a rate, not a headcount. THE RORT’s calculation: at the August 2026 labour force of about 15.56 million people, each 0.1 point of unemployment is about 15,600 people, so a rise from 4.4 to 4.8 per cent is roughly 62,000 more unemployed people 2728. From today’s actual count the gap to 4.8 per cent is smaller: 15,559,500 x 4.8 per cent = 746,856, less the 722,900 unemployed in August, is about 24,000 more 28. Both figures are THE RORT’s arithmetic on the ABS count and the Bank’s forecast, not Bank statements. The cost in the forecast is more unemployed people as the labour force grows, not fewer jobs: employment is still growing.

The Bank does not split that forecast rise by cause, and it has published no estimate of what the 2026 rises themselves do to unemployment; its forecasts rely on restrictive conditions keeping growth below potential so that the labour market eases 27.

The August count, from the ABS Labour Force survey (seasonally adjusted): unemployment 4.6 per cent, up from 4.5 per cent in July. Over the year unemployed people rose by 80,000 (12.4 per cent) to 722,900, while employment rose by 238,100 (1.6 per cent) to 14,836,600. Both halves are true together 28. The ABS flags a survey method change and recommends using trend estimates (trend unemployment is also 4.6 per cent); it calls the August data “fit-for-purpose” 28.

In trend terms unemployment has not fallen at any point in 2026: it was 4.3 per cent in January and 4.6 per cent in August, the highest in the release’s 12-month table 28. Underemployment was 6.2 per cent in August and has exceeded the unemployment rate in every month of 2026; underutilisation was 10.8 per cent in July and August, up from 10.0 per cent in January (seasonally adjusted) 28. August’s job growth was all part-time: full-time employment fell by 6,300 and part-time employment rose by 45,800. That is one month, not a trend 28.

Unemployment is already at the level the Bank’s August forecast had for mid-2027: 4.6 per cent, against 4.5 per cent forecast for December 2026 2728. That is not the same as saying the forecast has been missed. The forecast is a quarterly average, and the September quarter is incomplete: the July and August average is 4.55 per cent (THE RORT’s calculation).

What the Governor has said. On 11 August a Bloomberg journalist put it to her that “you say that we need higher unemployment”; those words are the journalist’s. Explaining what supply shocks do to the trade-off, she said: “Turned around, it means that for every inflation rate, we have to have a higher unemployment rate”. She said a slowing and a rise in unemployment are not a reason to reverse course: “Actually, we need that. We need growth to slow”. For balance, she said “I don’t like people losing their jobs generally. It’s stressful for them”, adding that employment “is still growing” 16. On the same day: “We expect that a period of subdued growth in the economy will be required to bring inflation down sustainably” 16.

I think between 4.5 and 5 will probably take enough heat out of the labor market that it’ll ease pressure on inflation.

That is the Governor’s answer to an audience question on the tolerable level of unemployment at the CEDA event on 22 September, in the Bank’s own transcript. The passage begins: “There’s no particular level at which I think we can get to.” In the same answer she said: “So it’s not that I can say I will only tolerate an unemployment rate of, say, 4.5 per cent at the moment. At the moment, we think that’s a bit tight.” And, for balance, she said that “having a job is really important” and that “high unemployment is not great” 29.

On the day of the rise, ACOSS chief executive Cassandra Goldie said: “Raising interest rates is creating unemployment by design, putting thousands of people out of work to slow the economy.” That is a reaction, not a statement of fact about unemployment; the ABC live blog framed it as a response to the Governor’s comments, and the Governor’s own words are above 30.

07The young first

Youth unemployment (ages 15 to 24) rose by 0.4 points to 10.8 per cent in August, more than double the national rate of 4.6 per cent 28. Over the year to August it rose by 1.1 points (from 9.7 to 10.8 per cent), against 0.4 points nationally: about 2.75 times as much. In trend terms the figures are 0.7 against 0.3, about 2.3 times. The ratios are THE RORT’s calculation from the ABS series 28.

It is the pattern Reserve Bank research predicted in 2018: the youth rate “tends to move twice as much”, possibly reflecting a “last in, first out” practice, with young workers “disproportionately concentrated in industries where the nature of work is quite cyclical, such as retail trade and food & accommodation” 31.

More than one in four young people in the labour force is now unemployed or wants more hours. Youth underutilisation was 26.3 per cent in August 2026, against 23.4 per cent a year earlier and 26.4 per cent in July: up 2.9 points over the year, against 0.9 points nationally, about 3.2 times as much (THE RORT’s calculation). Youth underemployment rose from 13.8 per cent to 15.6 per cent 28.

08Where: by state

The Bank sets one cash rate for the country; the August 2026 labour force figures (seasonally adjusted) are not evenly spread. Unemployment: Victoria 5.2 per cent, Tasmania 5.0, South Australia 4.6, Queensland 4.5, Western Australia 4.5, New South Wales 4.3, against 4.6 for Australia. Underemployment: Tasmania 6.9 per cent, Victoria 6.8, Queensland and South Australia 6.4, Western Australia 5.8, New South Wales 5.4. The Northern Territory and the ACT have no seasonally adjusted estimate and are left out 28.

09Small business

Small businesses pay far more to borrow than large ones. New loans in July 2026 cost small businesses 7.44 per cent, medium businesses 6.26 per cent and large businesses 5.54 per cent. The rise in rates on outstanding loans between January and July 2026 was similar across sizes: 0.61 points for small, 0.70 for medium and 0.67 for large 32. The indicator small business variable rates rose by 0.75 points in the months of the three rises to May, from 8.25 to 9.00 per cent and from 10.01 to 10.76 per cent 4.

The Bank’s Financial Stability Review says a higher cash rate reaches small businesses faster than large corporates: “This is in part because many smaller businesses take out variable-rate business loans secured with a residential property mortgage” 23. It adds that company insolvencies “have stabilised at around longer run averages at an economy-wide level, although the share of companies entering insolvency remains elevated in the hospitality and construction sectors, where the operating environment has been more challenging, particularly for smaller firms” 33. By contrast, the same review says “larger companies are expected to remain resilient to higher interest rates and cost pressures” 23.

10Home buyers

In its 29 September statement the Reserve Bank records that “housing prices have fallen in most capital cities and new housing loans have declined noticeably”, and, two sentences later, “Meanwhile, growth in business investment and debt is strong” 1. These are two sentences of the same paragraph set beside each other by THE RORT; they are not a Bank finding on who bears the burden.

There is early, unpublished research on buyers. The ABC reported on 25 September findings by James Graham (University of Sydney) and Avish Sharma (Northwestern University, a former Reserve Bank analyst): a typical 0.25 point rise caused “an immediate 5 per cent decline in home purchases”, and cut home ownership by up to about 0.3 points four years later, close to 30,000 households, with younger and lower-income buyers hit hardest. Each later rise did less than the first: “each subsequent rate rise produced a smaller shock than those before it” 34. The research is unpublished and has been reported by one outlet; treat it as early findings.

11Mortgage stress, two measures

Roy Morgan estimates that 32.5 per cent of owner-occupier mortgage holders, 1,786,000 people, were “At Risk” of mortgage stress in July 2026, the highest in 18 years and up 341,000 on a year earlier. Twenty-two per cent (1,210,000) were “Extremely At Risk”, against a two-decade average of 16.4 per cent. Roy Morgan’s own model says a September rise to 4.6 per cent adds only 0.2 points, about 12,000 people 35. Roy Morgan counts people, from a survey model, not households. Its chief executive Michele Levine said: “Mortgage stress has now increased six months in a row, interest rates have increased three times this year, housing prices are coming down in key markets” 35.

The Reserve Bank measures something else. Its March 2026 Financial Stability Review, written after the February and March rises and before May, found that the share of housing loans more than three months in arrears “has declined over the past year, returning to around pre-pandemic levels”, and that the share of mortgagors in severe financial stress has declined since mid-2024 and is small. Most mortgagors have large buffers: “The median mortgage prepayment buffer (relative to a borrower’s minimum scheduled payments) is larger than prior to the pandemic for all income quartiles”, though lower-income households have the thinnest buffers 23.

The Bank’s May 2026 Bulletin adds that, over five years, the share of housing loan facilities with an offset account rose from around 40 per cent to 55 per cent and with redraw facilities from around 70 per cent to 80 per cent 6. Its May 2026 Statement on Monetary Policy says that in 2022-23 the spending of variable-rate households “remained similar to households with fixed-rate mortgages for at least two years after interest rates started to increase” 7. The FSR put it this way: “A little over 1 per cent of variable-rate owner-occupier borrowers were estimated to be experiencing a cash flow shortfall as at the end of 2025” 23.

The two sets of figures measure different things, and neither covers the September rise. Beside them, the Commonwealth Bank’s own filing for the year to 30 June 2026 records strain behind its results: home loan arrears of 0.73 per cent and personal loan arrears of 1.72 per cent “reflecting cost-of-living pressures”, more than 147,000 tailored payment arrangements for customers needing support, and loan impairment expense up 9 per cent to $788 million 36.

12The other side: the Reserve Bank’s case

The Bank does not dispute the cost. On 11 August the Governor said: “I know that these increases have been tough for households with mortgages who are also facing high inflation. But they were necessary.” She added: “High inflation hurts all Australians, especially the most vulnerable, and that is why bringing inflation down is our priority” 16. On 18 September she told the House Economics Committee: “I recognise that higher interest rates are difficult for Australians with mortgages who are also facing cost-of-living pressures. But reducing inflation is essential”, and that “only a small share are facing severe difficulty with their loan repayments” 37.

On who inflation hurts, she said in September 2024 that “high inflation hurts everyone, and especially the most vulnerable”, and that “most people have experienced similar rates of increase in inflation”. She also said the settings “are causing hardship to some households and businesses” and that “lower income borrowers are over-represented in the group of people who are really struggling” 38.

On the cost of not acting, Governor Lowe said in November 2022 that “bringing inflation back down again after it becomes ingrained in people’s expectations is very costly and almost certainly involves a recession”, and that in the 1970s and 1980s it required “a rise in the unemployment rate of at least 5 percentage points” 39. Governor Bullock said on 28 July 2026: “Putting off a period of tight monetary policy today can mean higher rates and higher unemployment down the track” 40.

On gradualism, on 11 August she said: “if we were just focusing on inflation and we weren’t focusing on employment and the economy more broadly, then we could possibly raise interest rates very substantially and induce a very big impact but get inflation down very quickly. The reason why we’ve got this sort of slightly more flexible mandate is to allow us reasonable time to get inflation back down and hopefully avoid some of those costs, particularly on the employment side” 16.

The data carry the Bank’s side as well. Employment rose by 238,100 over the year to August 28. Most mortgagors have large buffers 23. Outright owners gain when rates rise, and higher-income households lose more in aggregate 20. And the oil shock makes Australians poorer whatever the cash rate: on 5 May the Governor said, “Australians are poorer because of this shock to oil prices and energy prices and all the other commodity prices that are being impacted. We are poorer and there is no way out of that” 41.

That last answer is also the charge in one sentence: in the same answer the Governor said of the oil shock that “the interest rate rises will not do anything about that” 41. In her prepared remarks that day she said what the rises are for: “What these increases do, however, is to help to contain the domestic inflationary pressures after the inflation due to oil and related commodity prices eases.” 41 The Bank’s case, in its own words above, is that inflation must come down, that a period of subdued growth is how it comes down, and that waiting costs more. The record above shows who carries the cash cost of the rises and who is exposed alongside them, on the Bank’s own research and the ABS’s figures: borrowers, lower-income mortgagors with the thinnest buffers, renters already about twice as likely to be in financial stress, and, on a forecast the Bank does not split by cause, more unemployed people, with youth unemployment rising faster than the national rate. Whether the trade is right is a judgment; the figures are here so that readers can make it.

If it’s a rort, we cover it.
Next in this rort · Article 13 / 20
Are corporations untouched?
The whole case
All 20 articles in The Inflation Rort →
The actors named here
The RBA →
From the desk
  • 29 September 2027Review
    Review: one year after publication
    The authored watch rows suppress this article's yearly review cadence; this row replaces it.
    Read the desk note

    REVIEW 29 September 2027 (case: THE INFLATION RORT). Re-read this article against the record a year after publication: every dated figure, every projection (Canstar's repayments), every estimate (the Reserve Bank's distributional research, the desk's headcount arithmetic) and every claim marked as unpublished or unconfirmed. NEXT DATE: none set.

  • 15 October 2026Watch
    Watch: Macquarie's announced pass-through of the 29 September rise takes effect
    Macquarie's variable home loan reference rates rise 0.25 points from this date.
    Read the desk note

    WATCH 15 October 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT). Macquarie's own page says its variable home loan reference rates rise by 0.25 per cent per annum (0.25 percentage points), effective 15 October 2026. Check the dates other lenders have announced (Teachers Mutual Bank Limited: variable home loans from 8 October 2026; CBA, Westpac, NAB and ANZ: from 9 October 2026), and whether Canstar's projection that four 2026 rises add about $364 a month on a $600,000 loan still holds; update section 1 of this article if it does not.

  • 9 October 2026Watch
    Watch: CBA, Westpac, NAB and ANZ variable home loan rises take effect
    The big four's variable home loan rises take effect as announced on 30 September.
    Read the desk note

    WATCH 9 October 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT). CBA, Westpac, NAB and ANZ each announced on 30 September a rise of 0.25 per cent a year in variable home loan rates, effective 9 October 2026 (their own pages and releases; CBA and ANZ say existing customers see the new rate from 10 October). Check that each bank's own rate page shows the new rates in force, and update the 30 September note in section 1 of this article if any bank changes its announcement. NEXT DATE: 15 October 2026, Macquarie's announced pass-through takes effect.

  • 4 October 2026Record
    Record: article 12 updated, 4 October 2026
    One update, in the section on the repayment: NAB's 0.25 is the whole of its variable home loan rise; its larger rises are fixed rates for new loans, after 22 July cuts, and card rates; one worked repayment on THE RORT's arithmetic.
    Read the desk note

    UPDATED 4 October 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT, article 12).

    ARTICLE CHANGES. One update, in the section on the repayment: NAB's 0.25 is the whole of its announced variable home loan rise; the larger NAB figures reported since 2 October are its fixed rates for new loans (0.35 to 0.47 points for owner-occupiers paying principal and interest, 0.30 to 0.45 for investors and 0.15 to 0.25 for owner-occupiers paying interest only, in two steps from 14 September to 2 October, after 22 July cuts of 0.05 in its owner-occupier one-year rate and 0.20 in its two-year rate, which at 6.81 per cent is 0.27 above its pre-cut 6.54 per cent, and 0.15 on its investor fixed rates) and its credit card purchase rates (0.50 to 1.50 points from each customer's first statement after 1 October); and THE RORT's arithmetic on a new $600,000, 30-year loan fixed for two years ($3,729.50 a month at 6.34 per cent on 14 September, $3,915.55 at 6.81 per cent from 2 October; $107.34 more than at the pre-cut 6.54 per cent), with a pointer to article 24. Four references added.

    STILL OPEN. Whether Canstar's projection that four 2026 rises add about $364 a month on a $600,000 loan holds once the rises take effect.

    NEXT DATE: 9 October 2026, the big four's variable home loan rises take effect.

  • 30 September 2026Record
    Record: article 12 updated three times, 30 September 2026
    Three dated entries, in time order: the big four as at about 5.00 am and the dated pass-throughs; rents against the ABS August CPI; and the four major banks' announcements of 30 September (variable home loans from 9 October) with ANZ's dollar figure.
    Read the desk note

    UPDATED 30 September 2026, three entries (case: THE INFLATION RORT, article 12). The calendar keys one record to each article and date, so the day's entries are kept together here in time order, each as written; the NEXT DATE line of the last entry is the current one.

    ENTRY 1 OF 3 (as at about 5.00 am AEST).

    ARTICLE CHANGES. One update, in the section on the repayment: the four major banks' own pages as at about 5.00 am AEST on 30 September (none had announced a decision); the two verified dated pass-throughs to variable home loans (Macquarie from 15 October, Teachers Mutual Bank Limited from 8 October); and Teachers Mutual Bank Limited's own repayment example (about $62 a month on a $400,000 loan over 25 years at 6.00 per cent) beside Canstar's projection.

    STILL OPEN. The big four's response to the rise (none had announced a decision on the pages read at about 5.00 am AEST on 30 September); the share of households with a mortgage in 2026 (the latest official figure is 2019-20, with new results due from mid-2027).

    NEXT DATE: 15 October 2026, Macquarie's rate changes take effect.

    ENTRY 2 OF 3 (on the ABS August CPI).

    ARTICLE CHANGES. One update in the renters section: the ABS published August CPI on 30 September, annual CPI 4.0 per cent (3.5 per cent in July); rents rose 3.6 per cent over the year to August, 0.4 percentage points below headline, where the article's July paragraph compared July's 3.6 with July's 3.5. Two references added. No published sentence was rewritten.

    STILL OPEN. Nothing new opened by this update.

    NEXT DATE: 15 October 2026.

    ENTRY 3 OF 3 (in the evening, from 5.40 pm AEST).

    ARTICLE CHANGES. One update, in the section on the repayment: the four major banks' own pages and releases, read between 5.40 pm and 5.43 pm AEST on 30 September. CBA, Westpac, NAB and ANZ each announced a rise of 0.25 per cent a year in variable home loan rates, effective 9 October 2026 (one day after Teachers Mutual Bank Limited's 8 October and six days before Macquarie's 15 October). Only ANZ gives a dollar figure, about $79 a month on a $500,000 owner-occupier loan with principal and interest repayments ($15.80 for each $100,000, THE RORT's arithmetic), beside Canstar's projection and Teachers Mutual Bank Limited's example. The update of about 5.00 am stands as the record of that time.

    WATCH ENTRIES. The 15 October watch was rewritten to add the big four's 9 October date to the dates to check, and a new 9 October watch records their announced rises taking effect.

    STILL OPEN. What borrowers will actually pay: the banks publish reference or index rates, and the discounted rates individual customers pay are not published; the share of households with a mortgage in 2026 (the latest official figure is 2019-20, with new results due from mid-2027).

    NEXT DATE: 9 October 2026, the big four's announced variable home loan rises take effect.

  • 29 September 2026Record
    Record: article 12 published, 29 September 2026
    Published the day the Reserve Bank raised the cash rate to 4.60 per cent: who carries the repayment, living-cost and job costs.
    Read the desk note

    PUBLISHED 29 September 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT, article 12).

    FINDING. On the same hypothetical $600,000 loan, Canstar projects the four 2026 rises add about $364 a month: about 8.4 per cent of $52,000 gross and 0.44 per cent of the Governor's 2024/25 base salary (THE RORT's arithmetic, gross, before tax, no real person's finances). The ABS records that in the June quarter mortgage interest charges rose 8.2 per cent and employee households had the largest living-cost rise of any household type. The Reserve Bank forecasts unemployment rising from 4.4 per cent to 4.8 per cent by end-2028 (it does not split that forecast by cause); the August figure was 4.6 per cent, and youth unemployment was 10.8 per cent. The Bank's own case is carried beside each charge.

    STILL OPEN. The big four's response to the rise (none announced by 4.46 pm AEST on 29 September, and none had announced a decision on the pages read at about 5.00 am AEST on 30 September); the share of households with a mortgage in 2026 (the latest official figure is 2019-20, with new results due from mid-2027).

    NEXT DATE: 15 October 2026, Macquarie's rate changes take effect.

The desk record →
THE RORT STANDARD 1.0: published before 1.0, not yet reviewed
This piece was published before the standard took effect on 8 Oct 2026 and has not been reviewed against it. What follows is what its own data records, not a finding that it meets the standard.
RS-1 37 of 54 references are primary documents (Tier 1). Enforced on new pieces by the release gate (RS-1.1) and the desk record.
RS-2 54 references: resolves checked 1, exists confirmed 0, supports confirmed 0, the rest unchecked. Enforced on new pieces by the release gate (RS-2.1) and the desk record.
RS-3 Case counter: MODELLED by THE RORT (inputs on the counter). Enforced by the release gate (RS-3.1 to RS-3.4) and the desk record.
RS-4 Not graded: published before 1.0. Enforced on new pieces by the release gate (RS-4.1 to RS-4.2) and the desk record.
RS-5 Right of reply: not recorded for this article. Enforced on new pieces by the release gate (RS-5.1 to RS-5.8) and the desk record.
RS-6 Unnamed sources not yet declared (published before 1.0). Enforced on new pieces by the release gate (RS-6.1 to RS-6.2) and the desk record.
RS-7 No corrections. Enforced by the release gate (RS-7.1 to RS-7.2) and the desk record.
RS-8 None declared. Enforced by the release gate (RS-8.1) and the desk record.
RS-10 No desk sign-off: published before 1.0. Enforced on new pieces by the release gate (RS-10.1) and the desk record.
RS-11 Complaints: desk@therort.com.au. Factual errors: corrections@therort.com.au. Acknowledged within five business days. Enforced by the release gate (RS-11.1 to RS-11.4) and the desk record.
The standard in full · How corrections work
References & Sources54 sources · all linked
Evidence strength
  • Primary 37
  • Official 12
  • Masthead 2
  • Trade 3
Primary
the document itself: legislation, a court record, a filing, a regulator’s own publication
Official
the organisation’s own statement about itself
Masthead
a news organisation with a corrections policy, reporting the primary document
Trade
specialist or trade press
How sources are graded

A check appears under a source only where one is on record: a machine test of whether the link loads, and, where the desk has made the call, whether the document exists and whether it carries the claim. Nothing is shown for a check that is not on record. What these checks mean

  1. PrimaryReserve Bank of Australia: Media Release 2026-27, 29 September 2026, 2.30 pm AEST. https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html. The Monetary Policy Board raised the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.60 per cent, the fourth rise of 2026; the decision was unanimous. The statement: “housing prices have fallen in most capital cities and new housing loans have declined noticeably.” and “Meanwhile, growth in business investment and debt is strong.”
  2. PrimaryReserve Bank of Australia: cash rate target history. https://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/cash-rate/. Fetched 29 September 2026. “13 Aug 2025 -0.25 3.60” … “4 Feb 2026 +0.25 3.85” … “6 May 2026 +0.25 4.35” … “12 Aug 2026 0.00 4.35” … “30 Sep 2026 +0.25 4.60”; any change in the cash rate target takes effect the following day. The 2023 peak was 4.35 per cent; the cash rate was 4.75 per cent until a cut effective 2 November 2011. The four 2026 rises total 100 basis points.
    • Link loaded when machine-checked, 2026-08-16
  3. TradeCanstar: “RBA September Cash Rate Hike”, Alasdair Duncan, 29 September 2026. https://www.canstar.com.au/news/rba-cash-rate-september-2026-hike-25/. A Canstar calculation and projection: $500,000 loan +$76 a month (four 2026 rises together +$303); $600,000 +$91 (+$364); $750,000 +$114 (+$454); $1,000,000 +$152 (+$606). “Based on an owner-occupier making principal and interest repayments with 25 years remaining on their loan term in February 2026, realising the average variable rate as per the RBA. Figures assume a rate hike in September, with banks passing it on from the following month.”
  4. PrimaryReserve Bank of Australia: Table F5, Indicator lending rates, published 7 September 2026. https://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/tables/csv/f5-data.csv. Every advertised bank variable housing rate rose exactly 0.75 points in the months of the three rises: standard owner-occupier 8.02 per cent (31 December 2025) to 8.77 per cent (31 August 2026). Small business variable rates 8.25 to 9.00 per cent and 10.01 to 10.76 per cent.
  5. PrimaryReserve Bank of Australia: Table F6, Housing lending rates, published 7 September 2026. https://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/tables/csv/f6-data.csv. Outstanding owner-occupied variable-rate loans, all institutions: 5.5 per cent at 31 December 2025 and 6.2 per cent at 31 July 2026.
  6. PrimaryReserve Bank of Australia: Bulletin, “Developments in Banks’ Funding Costs and Lending Rates”, Hutchinson, Manning and Searle, 28 May 2026. https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2026/may/pdf/developments-in-banks-funding-costs-and-lending-rates.pdf. “The share of outstanding housing loans with fixed rates fell to a historical low of less than 5 per cent in 2025 (Graph 7).” Offset accounts about 40 to 55 per cent, redraw about 70 to 80 per cent of housing loan facilities over five years.
  7. PrimaryReserve Bank of Australia: Statement on Monetary Policy, February 2026, financial conditions, 3 February 2026. https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2026/feb/financial-conditions.html: “However, less than 5 per cent of new and outstanding mortgages are on fixed-rate terms.” Statement on Monetary Policy, May 2026, financial conditions, 1 May 2026. https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2026/may/financial-conditions.html: “Cash rate increases can take up to three months to flow through to minimum required variable-rate mortgage payments.” On the same page: “the spending of households with variable-rate mortgages remained similar to households with fixed-rate mortgages for at least two years after interest rates started to increase.”
  8. PrimaryReserve Bank of Australia: Christopher Kent, speech, 18 November 2024. https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2024/sp-ag-2024-11-18.html: “The share of Australian mortgages at fixed rates has averaged around 20 per cent over the past two decades. Most of this is fixed for two years or less.” Statement on Monetary Policy, February 2023, Box A, 10 February 2023. https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2023/feb/box-a-mortgage-interest-payments-in-advanced-economies.html: “Australia and Norway have a high share of mortgages at variable rates (> 80%) compared to the other advanced economies shown.” Fixed periods about two years in Australia, five in the UK and Canada, 30 in the US; in the US over 80 per cent is long-term fixed (data June 2024 and February 2023).
  9. PrimaryBank of England: Financial Stability Report, July 2026. https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/financial-stability-report/2026/financial-stability-report-july-2026.pdf. “A little over 5 million households are projected to see their repayments increase by the end of 2028, compared to nearly 4 million at the time of the December FSR (Chart 5.2).” “Nearly 750,000 households that are paying less than 3% interest will be rolling off fixes in 2026 and will see an average increase of £170 per month in repayments.”
  10. OfficialBig four banks, rate pages re-checked between 4.44 pm and 4.46 pm AEST, 29 September 2026. CBA: https://www.commbank.com.au/news/rate-announcement.html, https://www.commbank.com.au/news/savings-rate-announcement.html (“29 September 2026 Following The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) cash rate decision, we’re currently reviewing the interest rates for savings products.”). Westpac: https://www.westpac.com.au/personal-banking/home-loans/manage-home-loan/latest-interest-rate-changes/ (“As a result, our interest rates are currently under review.”). NAB: https://www.nab.com.au/news/interest-rates/change-to-nab-home-loan-rate (home loan page still showed 3 February 2026). ANZ: https://www.anz.com.au/personal/home-loans/interest-rates/rate-changes/ (“ANZ is reviewing its home loan and residential investment loan interest rates accordingly and will provide any update here shortly.”). Check the pages for later changes.
  11. OfficialMacquarie: “Viewing the RBA interest rate decision”, Macquarie Help, fetched 4.39 pm AEST, 29 September 2026. https://www.macquarie.com.au/help/personal/home-loans/understanding-your-home-loan-interest-rates-and-fees/viewing-the-rba-interest-rate-decision.html. “Macquarie is increasing its variable home loan reference rates by 0.25% per annum, effective 15 October 2026.” The page does not split owner-occupier and investor loans.
  12. PrimaryReserve Bank of Australia: Annual Report 2025, Part 3, Table 3.2.3. https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/annual-reports/rba/2025/pdf/rba-annual-report-2025-part-3.pdf. Michele Bullock, Governor, 2024/25: base salary $987,132; other benefits $31,457; superannuation $132,457; long service leave $44,229; total remuneration $1,195,275. The Bonuses column shows “-” for every key management person. The proportion sums are THE RORT’s calculation: $364 x 12 = $4,368; $4,368 / $52,000 = 8.4 per cent; $4,368 / $987,132 = 0.44 per cent.
  13. PrimaryAustralian Bureau of Statistics: Employee Earnings, 12 December 2025. https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/earnings-and-working-conditions/employee-earnings/latest-release: “Median employee earnings in main job was $1,425 per week” (August 2025). Average Weekly Earnings, Australia, 13 August 2026. https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/earnings-and-working-conditions/average-weekly-earnings-australia/latest-release: May 2026 full-time adult average weekly ordinary time earnings $2,083.70 (seasonally adjusted, up 3.7 per cent); all-employee average weekly total earnings $1,579.20. The ABS series exclude employer superannuation.
  14. PrimaryRemuneration Tribunal: 2026 Remuneration Review Statement, decision notified 11 June 2026. https://www.remtribunal.gov.au/sites/default/files/2026-06/2026%20Remuneration%20Review%20Statement%20-%20FINAL.pdf. No adjustment for public offices in its jurisdiction from 1 July 2026: “While this approach will result in a reduction in real remuneration, it preserves existing relativities.” Whether the freeze applies to the Governor’s package, set by the Governance Board inside a Tribunal band, was not confirmed.
  15. PrimaryAustralian Bureau of Statistics: Selected Living Cost Indexes, Australia, June quarter 2026, 5 August 2026. https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/selected-living-cost-indexes-australia/latest-release. “Employee households recorded the largest rise in living costs this quarter of 1.5%.” “Mortgage interest charges rose due to banks passing on the RBA’s cash rate increases in February, March and May to both fixed and variable rate home loans.” “The remaining impact will be seen in the September 2026 quarter.” “In the twelve months to the June 2026 quarter, the LCIs rose between 3.7% and 4.7%.” Age pensioners 4.7 per cent (housing up 10.8 per cent), pensioners and beneficiaries 4.6, self-funded retirees 3.8, employees 3.7.
  16. PrimaryReserve Bank of Australia: Governor’s media conference, transcript, 11 August 2026. https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2026/mc-gov-2026-08-11.html. “I know that these increases have been tough for households with mortgages who are also facing high inflation. But they were necessary.” “High inflation hurts all Australians, especially the most vulnerable, and that is why bringing inflation down is our priority.” On cost of living: “people who have mortgages, they see the cost of their mortgages going up, and therefore their cost of living goes up. And they’re conflating” and “they’re saying cost of living going up is inflation. They’re actually not the same thing. But I get why people think th[at]”. On unemployment: “Turned around, it means that for every inflation rate, we have to have a higher unemployment rate.” “Actually, we need that. We need growth to slow”; a Bloomberg journalist put it to her that “you say that we need higher unemployment”; “I don’t like people losing their jobs generally. It’s stressful for them”; employment “is still growing”. “We expect that a period of subdued growth in the economy will be required to bring inflation down sustainably.” On gradualism: “if we were just focusing on inflation and we weren’t focusing on employment and the economy more broadly, then we could possibly raise interest rates very substantially and induce a very big impact but get inflation down very quickly. The reason why we’ve got this sort of slightly more flexible mandate is to allow us reasonable time to get inflation back down and hopefully avoid some of those costs, particularly on the employment side.”
  17. PrimaryAustralian Bureau of Statistics: Housing Occupancy and Costs, 2019-20, released 25 May 2022. https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/housing/housing-occupancy-and-costs/latest-release. “66% of Australian households owned their own home (37% owned with a mortgage, 29% owned without). 31% were renting.” “While owners with a mortgage spent 16% and renters spent 20% of their income on housing costs.”
  18. PrimaryAustralian Bureau of Statistics: Housing, Census 2021, 28 June 2022. https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/housing/housing-census/latest-release. “Of all the occupied private dwellings, 31 per cent are owned outright, 35 per cent are owned with a mortgage and 30.6 per cent are rented.”
  19. PrimaryAustralian Bureau of Statistics: media statement, Survey of Income and Housing results will not be released, 17 July 2025. https://www.abs.gov.au/media-centre/media-statements/survey-income-and-housing-results-will-not-be-released. “The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) will not release statistics from the 2023-24 Survey of Income and Housing (SIH) due to data collection issues.” “Results from the SIH 2025-26 are expected to be published from mid-2027.” The 2020-21 and 2021-22 surveys were cancelled because of COVID.
  20. PrimaryReserve Bank of Australia: Bulletin, “An Update on the Household Cash Flow Channel of Monetary Policy”, Jennison and Miller, 30 January 2025. https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2025/jan/an-update-on-the-household-cash-flow-channel-of-monetary-policy.html. “We estimate that a 100 basis point increase in the cash rate would lower total household disposable income by around 0.2 per cent in September quarter 2024.” “The reduction in cash flows following an interest rate increase is highest on average for households aged 30-54.” “The cash flows of higher income households tend to fall in aggregate when the cash rate increases.” “Looking just at households with housing debt, the impact of interest rate increases on disposable income is greater for lower income households.” “For the median outright homeowner household, the size of this increase is only around one-third of the decrease in cash flows experienced by the median mortgagor household.” “this group typically benefit from higher interest rates.” “renters tend to have much lower levels of both assets and debt, meaning changes in interest rates have very little direct effect on their cash flows.”
  21. PrimaryReserve Bank of Australia: Christopher Kent, Assistant Governor, speech, 11 October 2023. https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2023/sp-ag-2023-10-11.html. “When interest rates go up, households pay more on their debt and earn more on their savings. Because the cash-flow channel is so noticeable, and felt so keenly by borrowers, it gets a lot of attention.”
  22. PrimaryReserve Bank of Australia: Table F4.1, Paid deposit rates, published 7 September 2026. https://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/tables/csv/f4.1-data.csv. Households, all outstanding deposits: 2.8 per cent (31 December 2025) to 3.5 per cent (31 July 2026); outstanding at-call deposits, households: 2.5 to 3.2 per cent.
  23. PrimaryReserve Bank of Australia: Financial Stability Review, March 2026, 19 March 2026. https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/fsr/2026/mar/resilience-of-australian-households-and-businesses.html and https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/fsr/2026/mar/pdf/financial-stability-review-2026-03.pdf. “the share of renters experiencing at least one incident of financial stress was around two times that of owner-occupiers.” “The share of housing loans more than three months in arrears has declined over the past year, returning to around pre-pandemic levels.” “the share of mortgagors in severe financial stress … has declined since mid-2024 and is small.” “Most households with mortgages appear well placed to weather a wide range of adverse economic outcomes. Most borrowers have large liquidity and equity buffers.” “The median mortgage prepayment buffer (relative to a borrower’s minimum scheduled payments) is larger than prior to the pandemic for all income quartiles.” “A little over 1 per cent of variable-rate owner-occupier borrowers were estimated to be experiencing a cash flow shortfall as at the end of 2025.” Chapter 2: “Larger companies are expected to remain resilient to higher interest rates and cost pressures.” “Pass-through from a higher cash rate is likely to be quicker for small businesses than larger corporates. This is in part because many smaller businesses take out variable-rate business loans secured with a residential property mortgage.”
  24. PrimaryReserve Bank of Australia: Governor’s media conference, transcript, 3 February 2026. https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2026/mc-gov-2026-02-03.html. “it’s not just people with mortgages, renters are often struggling as well, inflation is what’s caused them lots of trouble. It’s the price level. The price level has gone up 20 to 25 per cent over the last few years.”
  25. PrimaryAustralian Bureau of Statistics: Consumer Price Index, Australia, July 2026, 26 August 2026. https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/consumer-price-index-australia/latest-release. “Rental prices rose 3.6% in the 12 months to July 2026, unchanged from the annual rise to June and May 2026.” Headline CPI 3.5 per cent. Update, 30 September 2026: the latest-release address now shows August; the July release is at https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/consumer-price-index-australia/jul-2026.
  26. PrimaryReserve Bank of Australia: Bulletin, “Do Housing Investors Pass Through Changes in Their Interest Costs to Rents?”, 17 October 2024. https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2024/oct/do-housing-investors-pass-through-changes-in-their-interest-costs-to-rents.html. “On average, we find that for every dollar increase in their mortgage interest costs, investors increase their rents by one cent.” “Overall, we find limited evidence that investors pass-through changes in their interest costs to their rents.” At most three cents in rising-rate periods; the estimates use 2006-07 to 2018-19 tax data; pass-through may be higher when vacancies are very low, “as is currently the case”.
  27. PrimaryReserve Bank of Australia: Statement on Monetary Policy, August 2026, outlook. https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2026/aug/outlook.html. Table 3.1, unemployment rate (quarterly, per cent): Jun 2026 4.4, Dec 2026 4.5, Jun 2027 4.6, Dec 2027 4.7, Jun 2028 4.8, Dec 2028 4.8. “Subdued GDP growth will weigh on labour demand, with the unemployment rate forecast to increase gradually to 4.8 per cent by end-2028.” GDP growth of 1.4 per cent over 2026.
  28. PrimaryAustralian Bureau of Statistics: Labour Force, Australia, August 2026, 24 September 2026. https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/employment-and-unemployment/labour-force-australia/aug-2026, with Table 013 (62020013.xlsx) and Table X29 (62020X29.xlsx). “Unemployed people | 694,700 | 722,900 | 28,200 | 4.1% | 80,000 | 12.4%”; “Employed people | 14,797,100 | 14,836,600 | 39,500 | 0.3% | 238,100 | 1.6%”. “Full-time employment decreased by 6,300 to 10,193,900 people, and part-time employment increased by 45,800 to 4,642,600 people.” “In August 2026, the underemployment rate fell by 0.1ppt to 6.2% and the underutilisation rate remained at 10.8% in seasonally adjusted terms.” “The youth unemployment rate increased by 0.4ppt to 10.8%.” Youth underutilisation (15 to 24, seasonally adjusted): Aug-25 23.4, Jan-26 24.5, Apr-26 25.5, Jun-26 26.2, Jul-26 26.4, Aug-26 26.3. State table, August 2026: unemployment NSW 4.3, Vic 5.2, Qld 4.5, SA 4.6, WA 4.5, Tas 5.0, Australia 4.6. THE RORT’s calculations: 15,559,500 x 4.8 per cent = 746,856, less 722,900 = 23,956 (about 24,000); each 0.1 point of unemployment is about 15,600 people at that labour force, so 4.4 to 4.8 per cent is about 62,000.
  29. PrimaryReserve Bank of Australia: Governor Michele Bullock, fireside chat at CEDA, 22 September 2026. https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2026/sp-gov-2026-09-22.html. “There’s no particular level at which I think we can get to. I think between 4.5 and 5 will probably take enough heat out of the labor market that it’ll ease pressure on inflation.” “So it’s not that I can say I will only tolerate an unemployment rate of, say, 4.5 per cent at the moment. At the moment, we think that’s a bit tight.” Also “having a job is really important” and “high unemployment is not great.”
  30. MastheadABC News: live blog, 29 September 2026. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-09-29/asx-markets-business-news-live-updates-tuesday-29-september/107206212. ACOSS chief executive Cassandra Goldie: “Raising interest rates is creating unemployment by design, putting thousands of people out of work to slow the economy.” The ABC framed it as a response to the Governor’s comments; that framing is the ABC’s.
  31. PrimaryReserve Bank of Australia: Bulletin, “Labour Market Outcomes for Younger People”, Zoya Dhillon and Natasha Cassidy, 21 June 2018. https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2018/jun/labour-market-outcomes-for-younger-people.html. “tends to move twice as much”; “may reflect a ‘last in, first out’ practice”; “tend to be disproportionately concentrated in industries where the nature of work is quite cyclical, such as retail trade and food & accommodation”.
  32. PrimaryReserve Bank of Australia: Table F7, published 7 September 2026. https://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/tables/csv/f7-data.csv. New business loans, July 2026: small 7.44 per cent, medium 6.26, large 5.54. Outstanding rates rose January to July 2026 by 0.61 points (small), 0.70 (medium) and 0.67 (large). The differences are THE RORT’s arithmetic on the table.
  33. PrimaryReserve Bank of Australia: Financial Stability Review, March 2026, financial stability assessment. https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/fsr/2026/mar/financial-stability-assessment.html. “Company insolvencies have stabilised at around longer run averages at an economy-wide level, although the share of companies entering insolvency remains elevated in the hospitality and construction sectors, where the operating environment has been more challenging, particularly for smaller firms.”
  34. MastheadABC News: “Rate rise home ownership impact study”, Michael Janda, 25 September 2026. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-09-25/rate-rise-home-ownership-impact-study/107191644. Unpublished research by James Graham (University of Sydney) and Avish Sharma (Northwestern University, former RBA analyst), reported by one outlet: “a typical 0.25 percentage point increase in interest rates caused an immediate 5 per cent decline in home purchases”; “each subsequent rate rise produced a smaller shock than those before it”.
  35. TradeRoy Morgan: “Mortgage stress risk, July 2026”, 1 September 2026. https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/10318-mortgage-stress-risk-july-2026. 32.5 per cent of mortgage holders “At Risk” of “mortgage stress” in July 2026, up 2.2 points from June; “the highest level of mortgage stress for 18 years”; a September rise “would increase to 32.7% (up 0.2% points from now)”. Roy Morgan’s figures are people, from a survey model. Michele Levine, chief executive: “Mortgage stress has now increased six months in a row, interest rates have increased three times this year, housing prices are coming down in key markets”.
  36. PrimaryCommonwealth Bank of Australia: ASX Announcement 215/2026, full year results, 12 August 2026. https://www.commbank.com.au/content/dam/commbank-assets/investors/2026/CBA-2026-Full-Year-Results-ASX-Announcement.pdf. “Home loan and personal loan arrears increased to 0.73% and 1.72% respectively reflecting cost-of-living pressures.” “We provided more than 147,000 tailored payment arrangements to customers needing support.” Loan impairment expense up 9 per cent to $788 million.
  37. PrimaryReserve Bank of Australia: Governor Michele Bullock, House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics, 18 September 2026. https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2026/sp-gov-2026-09-18.html. “I recognise that higher interest rates are difficult for Australians with mortgages who are also facing cost-of-living pressures. But reducing inflation is essential.” “only a small share are facing severe difficulty with their loan repayments”.
  38. PrimaryReserve Bank of Australia: Governor Michele Bullock, speech, 5 September 2024. https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2024/sp-gov-2024-09-05.html. “high inflation hurts everyone, and especially the most vulnerable.” “So, most people have experienced similar rates of increase in inflation.” “We know the restrictive monetary policy settings that are necessary to bring inflation down are causing hardship to some households and businesses.” “lower income borrowers are over-represented in the group of people who are really struggling”.
  39. PrimaryReserve Bank of Australia: Governor Philip Lowe, speech, 22 November 2022. https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2022/sp-gov-2022-11-22.html. “bringing inflation back down again after it becomes ingrained in people’s expectations is very costly and almost certainly involves a recession.” “a rise in the unemployment rate of at least 5 percentage points.”
  40. PrimaryReserve Bank of Australia: Governor Michele Bullock, “Monetary Policy in an Era of Shocks”, Anika Foundation lunch, 28 July 2026. https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2026/sp-gov-2026-07-28.html. “Putting off a period of tight monetary policy today can mean higher rates and higher unemployment down the track.”
  41. PrimaryReserve Bank of Australia: Governor’s media conference, transcript, 5 May 2026. https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2026/mc-gov-2026-05-05.html. “The shock with oil prices, there’s nothing we can do about that. And as I said earlier, the interest rate rises will not do anything about that. That is going to happen.” “it’s a real income shock for Australia and the world. Australians are poorer because of this shock to oil prices and energy prices and all the other commodity prices that are being impacted. We are poorer and there is no way out of that.” Prepared remarks: “The recent increases in interest rates will have no impact on this. What these increases do, however, is to help to contain the domestic inflationary pressures after the inflation due to oil and related commodity prices eases.”
  42. OfficialMacquarie: “Macquarie Bank’s response to the RBA’s interest rate decision”, media release, 29 September 2026, fetched 05:01 AEST, 30 September 2026. https://www.macquarie.com/au/en/about/news/2026/macquarie-banks-response-to-the-rba-interest-rate-decision.html. “Macquarie will increase variable home loan reference rates by 0.25% p.a. effective from 15 October 2026. Macquarie will also increase the ongoing variable interest rates paid on its transaction and savings accounts from 15 October 2026.” Transaction Account, current then from 15 October 2026: “$0 - $250,000 2.75% p.a. 3.00% p.a. $250,000.01 - $2,000,000 2.75% p.a. 3.00% p.a. $2,000,000.01 and above 2.75% p.a. 3.00% p.a.” Savings Account, current then from 15 October 2026: “$0 - $250,000 5.00% p.a. 5.25% p.a. $250,000.01 - $2,000,000 5.00% p.a. 5.05% p.a. $2,000,000.01 and above 2.75% p.a. 4.60% p.a.” The differences (25 basis points on every Transaction Account tier; 25, 5 and 185 basis points on the Savings Account) are THE RORT’s calculation. The release prints only the Transaction and Savings tables, and the words “term deposit” and “fixed” do not appear in its text.
  43. OfficialTeachers Mutual Bank Limited: announcement of increased interest rates, news centre, dated 29 September 2026, fetched 04:59 AEST, 30 September 2026. https://www.tmbl.com.au/news-centre/teachers-mutual-bank-announces-increase-interest-rates. “Following the decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia to increase the official cash rate by 0.25% p.a., Teachers Mutual Bank Limited will increase interest rates by 0.25% p.a. across its variable home loan products, effective 8 October 2026 and variable savings products, effective Thursday, 1 October 2026.” “The increase to variable home loan and variable savings rates announced today will be applied across Teachers Mutual Bank Limited’s five retail brands - Teachers Mutual Bank, Australian Mutual Bank, Firefighters Mutual Bank, Health Professionals Bank and UniBank.” Greg Johnson, Chief Customer Officer: “A large number of our members also have significant savings with the bank, and this rate change provides higher returns on the money they have worked hard to put aside.” “Repayments will change on or after 1 November 2026”; “for a $400,000 home loan over 25 years with an interest rate of 6.00%, an increase of 0.25% would result in an approximate increase of $62 per month” ($2,577 to $2,639 in the bank’s table; the figure was recomputed and holds). The bank states no rate levels.
  44. OfficialThe four major banks’ own rate pages, fetched between 04:59 and 05:00 AEST on 30 September 2026. CBA home loans: https://www.commbank.com.au/news/rate-announcement.html, “5 May 2026 Following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) cash rate decision, and after considering other relevant factors, we will increase our home loan variable interest rates by 0.25% p.a. effective Friday 15 May 2026.” CBA savings: https://www.commbank.com.au/news/savings-rate-announcement.html, “29 September 2026” “Following The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) cash rate decision, we’re currently reviewing the interest rates for savings products.” CBA home page: https://www.commbank.com.au/, an undated banner, “The Reserve Bank of Australia has increased the cash rate. We’re reviewing our rates and will share an update soon.” (seen 04:59 AEST, 30 September; when it first appeared is not known). Westpac: https://www.westpac.com.au/personal-banking/home-loans/manage-home-loan/latest-interest-rate-changes/, “Tuesday, 29th September 2026 announcement” “The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has today announced an increase in the official cash rate. As a result, our interest rates are currently under review. We will announce any changes to our Home Loan variable rates on this page once a decision has been made.” NAB: https://www.nab.com.au/news/interest-rates/change-to-nab-home-loan-rate, newest dated rate entry “03 February 2026” (“NAB’s standard variable home loan interest rate will rise by 0.25% p.a. from 13 February 2026.”); https://www.nab.com.au/news, newest date 28 September 2026. ANZ: https://www.anz.com.au/personal/home-loans/interest-rates/rate-changes/, “29 September 2026” “The Reserve Bank of Australia has announced an increase to the cash rate of 0.25%. ANZ is reviewing its home loan and residential investment loan interest rates accordingly and will provide any update here shortly.” Absences are as at the fetch times only; term deposit pages were not re-read.
  45. PrimaryAustralian Bureau of Statistics: media release, “CPI rose 4.0% in the year to August 2026” (Consumer Price Index, Australia, August 2026), released 30 September 2026, 11:30am AEST. https://www.abs.gov.au/media-centre/media-releases/cpi-rose-40-year-august-2026. Fetched 11:54 AEST, 30 September 2026. “The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 4.0 per cent in the 12 months to August 2026, up from 3.5 per cent in the 12 months to July”.
  46. PrimaryAustralian Bureau of Statistics: Consumer Price Index, Australia, August 2026, release page, released 30 September 2026, 11:30am AEST. https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/consumer-price-index-australia/aug-2026. Fetched 11:54 AEST, 30 September 2026. “The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 4.0%, up from 3.5% in the 12 months to July 2026. Trimmed mean inflation was 3.6%, unchanged from the 12 months to July 2026. In the month of August, the CPI rose 0.4% in original and 0.7% in seasonally adjusted terms.”; “The main contributors to the annual rise were New dwellings (+5.4%), Electricity (+13.2%) and Rents (+3.6%).” (Housing group); “Rental prices rose 3.6% in the 12 months to August 2026, unchanged since May 2026.”.
  47. OfficialCommonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA): home loan rate announcement page, https://www.commbank.com.au/news/rate-announcement.html, dated 30 September 2026, fetched 17:40 AEST, 30 September 2026. “Following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) cash rate decision, and after considering other relevant factors, we’re increasing our variable home loan interest rates by 0.25% p.a. effective Friday 9 October 2026. Existing home loan customers will be able to see their new interest rate from Saturday 10 October 2026 in the CommBank app and NetBank.” CBA newsroom, “CBA interest rate decision”, https://www.commbank.com.au/articles/newsroom/2026/09/CBA-interest-rates-september.html, dated 30 September 2026, fetched 17:43 AEST. “Following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) decision to increase the official cash rate by 0.25% per annum (p.a.), CBA will increase home loan variable interest rates by 0.25% p.a.” “All CommBank home loan variable rate changes announced today will be effective 9 October 2026.” “CBA’s Group Executive Retail Banking, Angus Sullivan said the RBA’s decision comes amid persistent inflation and continued global uncertainty, both contributing to broader economic pressures.” CBA savings rate page, https://www.commbank.com.au/news/savings-rate-announcement.html, dated 29 September 2026, fetched 17:40 AEST. “Following The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) cash rate decision, we’re currently reviewing the interest rates for savings products.” The release states no savings or term deposit change and gives no dollar repayment figure.
  48. OfficialWestpac: media release, “Westpac announces interest rate changes”, dated 30 September 2026, https://www.westpac.com.au/about-westpac/media/media-releases/2026/30-september/, fetched 17:40 AEST, 30 September 2026. “Following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to increase the cash rate, Westpac has announced interest rate changes for home loan and deposit customers.” “Westpac will increase home loan variable interest rates by 0.25% p.a. for new and existing customers, effective 9 October.” “Westpac Life total variable rate with bonus interest will increase by 0.25% p.a. to 5.25% p.a., effective 9 October.” Footnote: “The standard variable bonus rate on Westpac Life will increase by 0.25% p.a.” “At the same time, higher interest rates on deposit accounts will be welcome news for customers looking to grow their savings,” Carolyn McCann, Westpac Chief Executive, Consumer, said. Westpac home loan page, https://www.westpac.com.au/personal-banking/home-loans/manage-home-loan/latest-interest-rate-changes/, fetched 17:40 AEST: “Wednesday, 30th September 2026 announcement”; “we have announced the following changes to our variable home loan interest rates effective Friday, 9th October 2026”; Owner Occupier Loan “+ 0.25% p.a.”, Investment Property Loan “+ 0.25% p.a.”. The release names no other savings or term deposit product.
  49. OfficialNAB: news release, “NAB announces home loan interest rate changes”, headed “30 September”, and listed as 30 September 2026 in Related Articles on NAB’s older home loan rate page (below). https://www.nab.com.au/news/interest-rates/nab-announces-home-loan-interest-rate-changes. Fetched 17:40 AEST, 30 September 2026. “Following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to increase the official cash rate by 0.25% per annum, NAB will increase its variable home loan interest rates by 0.25% p.a.” “The new rates will take effect from October 9.” “This change applies to NAB standard variable home loan rates.” “NAB also regularly reviews its savings and deposit rates.” The release quotes NAB Group Executive Personal Banking, Ana Marinkovic, and gives no dollar repayment figure. NAB’s older page, https://www.nab.com.au/news/interest-rates/change-to-nab-home-loan-rate, fetched 17:40 AEST, still showed “03 February 2026” and “NAB’s standard variable home loan interest rate will rise by 0.25% p.a. from 13 February 2026.”
  50. OfficialANZ: media release, “ANZ changes variable home loan rates”, dated 30 September 2026, https://www.anz.com.au/newsroom/media/2026/september/anz-changes-variable-home-loan-rates/, fetched 17:40 AEST, 30 September 2026. “ANZ today announced it will increase interest rates for variable rate home loan customers following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to increase the official cash rate yesterday.” “Variable interest rates across ANZ’s Australian home loans will increase by 0.25% p.a., effective 9 October 2026. ANZ continues to review other interest rates.” “A 0.25% p.a. increase to variable home loan rates will increase monthly repayments by approximately $79 on a variable home loan of $500,000 for an owner occupier loan with principal and interest repayments.” ANZ rate announcement page, https://www.anz.com.au/personal/home-loans/interest-rates/rate-changes/, dated 30 September 2026, fetched 17:40 AEST: “Effective 9 October 2026, ANZ will increase variable interest rates for home, residential investment and line of credit home loans by 0.25% p.a.” The page says it does not apply to ANZ Plus products, and defers to the ANZ Plus website for those.
  51. OfficialNAB: news release, “NAB announces home loan interest rate changes”, headed “30 September” and listed as 30 September 2026 in NAB’s interest-rates news index, https://www.nab.com.au/news/interest-rates/nab-announces-home-loan-interest-rate-changes, fetched 12:40 AEST, 3 October 2026, and re-read unchanged at 13:50 AEDT, 4 October 2026. “Following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to increase the official cash rate by 0.25% per annum, NAB will increase its variable home loan interest rates by 0.25% p.a.” “The new rates will take effect from October 9.” “This change applies to NAB standard variable home loan rates.” “NAB also regularly reviews its savings and deposit rates.” NAB customer notice, https://www.nab.com.au/customer-notices/rba-announcement, fetched 12:40 AEST, 3 October 2026, and re-read unchanged at 13:50 AEDT, 4 October 2026: “NAB will increase the variable home loan interest rates by 0.25% p.a., effective Friday 9 October 2026.” “View these rate changes on the NAB app and internet banking from Friday 9 October 2026”.
  52. OfficialNAB: fixed rate home loan page, https://www.nab.com.au/personal/home-loans/nab-fixed-rate-home-loan, fetched 12:40 AEST, 3 October 2026, and re-read unchanged at 13:50 AEDT, 4 October 2026: “Information and rates are correct as at 2 October 2026 and are subject to change.” Owner-occupier principal and interest, every loan to value band to 80%, one to five years: 6.79, 6.81, 6.92, 6.92 and 6.94% p.a.; investor principal and interest 6.84, 6.89, 6.97, 6.97 and 6.99; owner-occupier and investor interest only 6.94, 6.99, 7.07, 7.07 and 7.09 (loan to value ratio 60% or less). Offer box: “This offer is for new owner occupier ... principal and interest home loans where the customer takes a 2 year fixed rate NAB Tailored Home Loan and has a deposit of 20% or more of the property value (Maximum permitted loan to value ratio of 80%).” The page describes “fixed interest rates that won’t change during the fixed term”. Web-archive copies of the same page: 15 September 2026, https://web.archive.org/web/20260915124521id_/https://www.nab.com.au/personal/home-loans/nab-fixed-rate-home-loan, fetched 12:57 AEST, 3 October 2026, stamped “correct as at 14 September 2026” (owner-occupier principal and interest 6.44, 6.34, 6.49, 6.49 and 6.49; owner-occupier interest only 6.79, 6.74, 6.89, 6.89, 6.89; investor interest only 6.64, 6.54, 6.69, 6.69, 6.69); 25 September 2026, https://web.archive.org/web/20260925123138id_/https://www.nab.com.au/personal/home-loans/nab-fixed-rate-home-loan, fetched 12:50 AEST, 3 October 2026, stamped “correct as at 23 September 2026” (owner-occupier principal and interest 6.59, 6.49, 6.64, 6.64 and 6.64). Every one of the page’s 80 fixed rates (four products, five terms, four loan to value bands) is 0.15 higher on the 25 September copy than on the 15 September copy, and the band above 80% sits 0.10 above the others on all three dates (THE RORT’s comparison). No archived copy exists between 25 September and 2 October.
  53. TradeNAB’s 22 July fixed-rate cut. Savings.com.au, news article published 22 July 2026, https://www.savings.com.au/news/nab-cuts-fixed-home-loan-rates, fetched 12:28 AEST, 3 October 2026, and 13:52 AEDT, 4 October 2026: “a cut of 20 basis points” to “6.34% p.a.” (two-year owner-occupier); “The best new fixed rate for investors is 6.44% p.a.” (principal and interest, two years); “Investor fixed home loans for both P&I and interest-only (IO) repayments have been cut across the board by 15 basis points.” Canstar, news article of 22 July 2026, https://www.canstar.com.au/news/nab-cuts-fixed-rates-ahead-of-rba-august-decision/, fetched 12:28 AEST, 3 October 2026, and 13:52 AEDT, 4 October 2026, table: “1-year 6.49% 6.44% -0.05 / 2-year 6.54% 6.34% -0.20”. No source read shows NAB’s three- to five-year rates on 22 July.
  54. OfficialNAB: “Credit card changes from 1 October 2026”, https://www.nab.com.au/personal/credit-cards/card-updates, fetched 12:45 AEST, 3 October 2026, and 15:01 AEDT, 4 October 2026. “We’re making some changes to your NAB credit card, effective 1 October 2026.” “The variable purchase rate will increase from 20.99% p.a. to 22.49% p.a.” (under six card headings: Low Fee Card and Low Fee Platinum; Qantas Plus; Qantas Rewards Premium; Qantas Rewards Signature; Rewards Platinum; Rewards Signature). NAB Low Rate Card: “The variable purchase rate will increase from 13.49% p.a. to 13.99% p.a.” Those cards and the Low Rate Platinum: “The variable cash advance rate will increase from 21.74% p.a. to 22.99% p.a.” “Any change to your interest rates will apply from the opening date of your next statement after 1 October 2026. It will apply to the relevant parts of the outstanding balance that you owe”. “Most changes require us to give you at least 30 days’ notice, which we have done.” Rewards Signature: “The monthly card fee of $35 will be changing to an annual card fee of $395 p.a.” The page contains neither “surcharge” nor “interchange”. Australian Frequent Flyer forum thread, https://www.australianfrequentflyer.com.au/community/threads/nab-credit-card-updates-1-october-2026.123772/, fetched 12:45 AEST, 3 October 2026, and 15:01 AEDT, 4 October 2026. Post #1, dated 28 July 2026, 8:43 pm AEST, pastes NAB’s wording for the NAB Qantas Rewards Signature Card: “The variable purchase rate will increase from 20.99% p.a. to 22.49% p.a. The variable cash advance rate will increase from 21.74% p.a. to 22.99% p.a.” A forum post, not a NAB publication.
This piece is one node in the model. Every entity it names has a dossier that assembles itself from every article mentioning it. Follow the names, and the case, through the record.
← THE INFLATION RORT