THE RORT · THE INFLATION RORT · ARTICLE 4 / 20READING
CASE FILE · THE INFLATION RORTARTICLE 4 / 20By The Rort · April 2026 · updated 8 October 2026 · therort.com.au

Who rate rises hurt

Roy Morgan’s survey model put 32.5 per cent of owner-occupier mortgage holders (1,786,000 people, not households) at risk of mortgage stress in July 2026, the highest in 18 years. RateCity calculated that the 13 rises of 2022-23 added ab…

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WHO RATE RISES HURT: THE DISTRIBUTIONAL COST MORTGAGE STRESS 32.5% at risk, Roy Morgan model (Jul 2026) +A$1,210 extra monthly repayment on A$500K loan +425bp cash rate rise, May 2022 to Nov 2023 THE FIXED-RATE ROLLOVER ~2% pandemic fixed rate one day → ~6.5% variable rate rollover +4.5pp effective increase, applied instantly REAL INCOME DESTRUCTION -5% real wages from 2021 -5.1% real household income per head, 2023 (OECD) -26% real income for mortgaged couple over 12 months -1.8% real household income per head, 2024, the largest fall in the OECD THE RORT · SOURCE: ROY MORGAN, RBA, RATECITY, AUSTRALIA INSTITUTE, AFR
32.5 per cent of owner-occupier mortgage holders (1,786,000 people) at risk of mortgage stress in July 2026, on Roy Morgan’s survey model; the RBA’s own measures read differently.

The distributional anatomy of the 2022–23 rate cycle is straightforward once you understand who holds variable-rate debt in Australia. Rate rises help those who hold savings and hurt those who hold debt. In Australia, debt is concentrated among younger households who borrowed to buy homes when prices were high. Savings are concentrated among older households and financial institutions. The 13 rate rises were therefore a systematic transfer of wealth from the first group to the second.

The scale of that transfer is documented.

Update, 29 September 2026. The Reserve Bank’s own estimates, published in January 2025, refine this picture, and limit the charge above: by the Bank’s estimate a rise lowers the household sector’s total disposable income, so the household sector as a whole loses; the rises are not only a transfer between households. Whether banks gain is a separate question, taken up in ‘Who rate rises helped’. For the September quarter 2024, before the 2026 rises, it estimated that a 100 basis point rise lowers total household disposable income by around 0.2 per cent, with the largest average losses for households aged 30 to 54 16. By income, higher-income households lose cash flow in aggregate (many have mortgages) while lower-income households gain (more of them rent or own outright); among borrowers, lower-income households lose a bigger share of income 16. The median outright owner’s gain is only around a third of the median mortgagor’s loss, and many older households ‘typically benefit’ 16.

Fig. 01 / Who pays for a rise, and who gains
Lose
Mortgage holders
Among borrowers, lower-income households lose a bigger share of income
Repayments on a A$500,000 loan after the 13 rises, passed on in full, on RateCity's calculation
About A$1,210 more a month
Canstar's projection for the four rises of this year, on a A$600,000 owner-occupier loan
About A$364 more a month
Owner-occupier mortgage holders 'At Risk' of mortgage stress in July 2026, on Roy Morgan's survey model
32.5 per cent
Arrears, on the Reserve Bank's March measures, before the May and September rises
Around pre-pandemic levels
Costs
Largest average losses for households aged 30 to 54
A 100 basis point rise
Lowers total household disposable income by around 0.2 per cent, on the Reserve Bank's estimate for the September quarter 2024
Benefits
Many older households 'typically benefit', the Bank says
Gain
Outright owners
Lower-income households gain in aggregate, as more of them rent or own outright
The median outright owner's gain, against the median mortgagor's loss
Around a third
The household sector
By the Bank's estimate a rise lowers the household sector's total disposable income, so the household sector as a whole loses; the rises are not only a transfer between households.

Repayment figures are for the loans named. The stress estimate is a survey model's; the Reserve Bank's own measures read differently.

Stated in: the opening, §01

Fig. 01Source: the article text, each mark cited to its sentenceAs of 2026‑04Hand-curated

01Mortgage holders: A$1,210 more per month

RateCity calculated that for an average owner-occupier who started the cycle with a A$500,000 debt at a 2.86 per cent variable rate, the 13 rate rises, passed on in full, added about A$1,210 to monthly repayments, a 52 per cent increase on May 2022. 1 The RBA found that between May 2022 and September 2023 the average outstanding variable mortgage rate increased by around 70 basis points less than the full 425 basis point cash rate increase 50.

32.5% of mortgage holders
‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress in July 2026 (1,786,000 people, not households), the highest in 18 years. Monthly repayments up about A$1,210 on a A$500K loan after the 13 rises, on RateCity’s calculation. The RBA’s March 2026 measures found arrears near pre-pandemic levels and severe stress small.
Source · Roy Morgan (survey model) / RateCity

An earlier version of this article said that by October 2023 more than 1.5 million Australian households were at risk of mortgage stress, up more than 700,000 from before the rate rises. That figure has been withdrawn (see the correction below).

Update, 29 September 2026. After three cuts in 2025 to 3.60 per cent, the Reserve Bank raised the cash rate four times in 2026, to 4.60 per cent from 30 September 34. In 2026 repayments climbed again. Canstar projects that the four 2026 rises together add about A$364 a month to repayments on a A$600,000 owner-occupier loan (A$303 on A$500,000), assuming banks pass the September rise on from the following month; by 4.46 pm on 29 September none of the big four had announced a change to its rates 1718. The ABS found mortgage interest charges rose 8.2 per cent in the June quarter 2026 as banks passed on the February, March and May rises (the rest of the May rise shows in the September quarter), and employee households recorded the largest rise in living costs that quarter (1.5 per cent) 19. Roy Morgan’s survey model put 32.5 per cent of owner-occupier mortgage holders (1,786,000 people, not households) ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress in July 2026, the highest in 18 years 20. Its own model estimates a September rise adds 0.2 points (about 12,000 people) 20. The Reserve Bank’s own measures read differently: in March 2026, before the May and September rises, it found arrears back to around pre-pandemic levels and the share of mortgagors in severe stress small, with most borrowers holding large buffers, though lower-income households hold the thinnest 21; a little over 1 per cent of variable-rate owner-occupier borrowers were in cash-flow shortfall at the end of 2025 22.

Update, 30 September 2026. As at about 5.00 am AEST on 30 September none of the big four had announced, on the pages THE RORT read, a decision on the September rise: CBA’s home loan page still showed 5 May 2026 and its savings page, dated 29 September, said it was ‘currently reviewing’ its savings rates; Westpac’s and ANZ’s pages, each dated 29 September, said they were reviewing their rates; NAB’s home loan page still showed 3 February 2026 39. Two lenders THE RORT has verified have announced dates for variable home loans: Macquarie, from 15 October on its variable home loan reference rates 35, and Teachers Mutual Bank Limited, from 8 October on its variable home loans, across its five retail brands 38. Teachers Mutual Bank Limited’s own example, for an A$400,000 home loan over 25 years at 6.00 per cent, is an increase of about A$62 a month (A$2,577 to A$2,639), with repayments changing on or after 1 November 2026 38. That is between A$15 and A$16 a month for each A$100,000 borrowed; Canstar’s projection above works out at about A$15 (A$364 over four rises on A$600,000, about A$91 a rise; THE RORT’s arithmetic).

Update, 30 September 2026, evening. Between 5.40 pm and 5.43 pm AEST on 30 September the four major banks’ own pages and releases showed that all four had announced a rise of 0.25 per cent a year in variable home loan rates, effective 9 October 2026: CBA 42; Westpac, for new and existing customers 43; NAB, on its standard variable home loan rates 44; and ANZ, on its home, residential investment and line of credit home loans 45. That is one day after Teachers Mutual Bank Limited’s 8 October 38 and six days before Macquarie’s 15 October 35. Only ANZ gives a dollar figure: about A$79 a month more on an A$500,000 owner-occupier loan with principal and interest repayments 45, which is between A$15 and A$16 a month for each A$100,000 (A$15.80; THE RORT’s arithmetic), in the same range as the Teachers Mutual Bank Limited example and Canstar’s projection above. CBA, Westpac and NAB give no repayment figure 424344. Each points borrowers in difficulty to support: CBA’s Financial Assistance Solutions Team, Westpac Assist and NAB Care 424344, and ANZ its home loan repayment support 45.

Correction, 29 September 2026. The subtitle, image caption, image, fact box, pullquote and key facts of this article previously said that more than 1.5 million Australian households were at mortgage stress by October 2023, and the second paragraph of this section repeated it. THE RORT could not verify that figure, and the source cited for it in references 2 and 5, as THE RORT reads it, refers to mortgage holders, not households. The same paragraph also said the RBA found that 1 in 50 mortgage holders could face severe financial stress; that line rested on the same page, has no source THE RORT could verify, and has been removed. Roy Morgan’s survey model counts people. The figure has been replaced with Roy Morgan’s own July 2026 estimate, 32.5 per cent of owner-occupier mortgage holders (1,786,000 people) ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress 20. In the pullquote it has been replaced with the A$1,210 repayment figure. That is a survey model’s estimate; the Reserve Bank’s own measures, above, read differently.

Many of the households experiencing these pressures had never seen a rate rise before the cycle began. The RBA’s last rate rise before May 2022 was in November 2010. A borrower who took out a mortgage in 2015 had spent seven years in a falling or flat rate environment. The 13 rises hit that borrower in an eighteen-month period.

Correction, 7 October 2026, reworded 8 October 2026. The first paragraph of this section said the RBA found the average outstanding mortgage rate increased by approximately 320 basis points, somewhat less than the 425 basis point cash rate rise, reflecting the partial insulation of fixed-rate borrowers. That figure had no reference in the article, and it was removed on 7 October. The figure was not wrong: the RBA’s April 2024 Bulletin (Ung) says the average outstanding mortgage rate rose by around 320 basis points between May 2022 and December 2023, around 105 basis points less than the cash rate rise over that period, and attributes the slower pass-through to a high share of fixed-rate loans and to lender competition 3. It is a different measure and end date from the one the paragraph now gives, the average outstanding variable rate, which the RBA’s November 2023 Statement puts at around 70 basis points less than the cash rate between May 2022 and September 2023 50. The two are not in conflict. The 7 October wording of this note said the 320 figure did not match the RBA’s own measure and that the source does not give fixed-rate borrowers as the reason; both statements were wrong and are withdrawn. The paragraph itself is unchanged.

Correction, 7 October 2026. The first paragraph of this section, the subtitle, the fact box, the chart and the key facts said repayments on a A$500,000 loan were about A$1,210 a month higher "by April 2024 compared to April 2022", and the paragraph said variable mortgage rates "surged 69 per cent". The A$1,210 figure is RateCity's calculation for an average owner-occupier who started with a A$500,000 debt at 2.86 per cent, with all 13 rises passed on in full (a 52 per cent rise in repayments on May 2022), not a measured April 2024 figure; the text now says so and reference 1 now points to that RateCity page. THE RORT could not find a source for the 69 per cent figure, and it has been removed, including from the key facts, where it now gives the Reserve Bank’s pass-through measure instead 50.

Correction, 8 October 2026. The 7 October note above on the 320 basis point figure gave wrong reasons for the removal. It has been reworded: the figure is the RBA’s measure of the average outstanding mortgage rate to December 2023 3, not a mismatch with the variable-rate measure the paragraph uses 50, and the source does give a high share of fixed-rate loans as one reason for the slower pass-through. The removal of the unreferenced figure stands.

02Fixed-rate rollovers: the shock in a single day

During the COVID pandemic, with the cash rate at 0.10 per cent, many Australians locked in low fixed rates. The share of outstanding housing credit on fixed rates rose from approximately 20 per cent in early 2020 to a peak of nearly 40 per cent in early 2022. These fixed rates were typically around 2 to 2.5 per cent. 3

Most of these loans had terms of two or three years. About half had expired by the end of 2023. When they did, borrowers did not transition gradually to higher rates. They repriced on a single day. A borrower who had been paying 2 per cent woke up paying 6.5 per cent. The effective rate increase was 4.5 percentage points, applied instantly. 3

The September and December quarters of 2023 each saw approximately 15 per cent of the fixed-rate loan stock expire. For those households, the rate cycle did not arrive gradually over 19 months. It arrived in full on the day their fixed rate ended. 3

Update, 29 September 2026. The 2026 rises met almost no such cushion. The share of outstanding housing loans on fixed rates fell to a historical low of less than 5 per cent in 2025 23, and the Reserve Bank says rises ‘can take up to three months’ to reach minimum variable-rate repayments 24. Over two decades the fixed share averaged about 20 per cent 25, peaking at almost 40 per cent in early 2022 26. Against that, more loans now carry somewhere to hold a buffer: over five years the share of housing loan facilities with an offset account rose from about 40 per cent to 55 per cent, and with redraw from about 70 per cent to 80 per cent 23.

Update, 30 September 2026. A borrower fixing in late September met higher fixed rates than in mid-August at Macquarie, the one lender THE RORT checked. Its owner-occupier principal and interest fixed rates for loans up to 70 per cent of the property’s value were 0.30 to 0.50 points higher on 30 September than on 13 August (the one-year rate 6.19 to 6.49 per cent, the three-year 6.09 to 6.59), for new loans 36. Media reports date the first rise to 8 September, and the second was reported on 24 September 37. This is one lender’s pricing of new fixed loans; it does not change the Reserve Bank’s finding above that fixed rates were a historically low share of outstanding housing loans.

Correction, 4 October 2026. The paragraph above says Macquarie’s owner-occupier fixed rates were 0.30 to 0.50 points higher on 30 September than on 13 August without saying that this followed cuts. On 5 June Macquarie cut its one- to five-year fixed rates by 0.25, 0.40, 0.50, 0.35 and 0.45 points, from 6.44, 6.54, 6.59, 6.64 and 6.74 per cent, Canstar reported, to 6.19, 6.14, 6.09, 6.29 and 6.29 per cent, the same levels its own page showed on 13 August 46. Its rates on 30 September, unchanged on 3 October, of 6.49, 6.59, 6.59, 6.64 and 6.64 per cent are 0.05 points above the pre-June levels at one and two years, level at three and four years, and 0.10 below at five (THE RORT’s arithmetic) 4636. Most of the September rises reversed the June cuts. A borrower fixing at Macquarie at the rates its page showed on 30 September met rates within 0.10 points of those before 5 June (THE RORT’s arithmetic). The figures and dates in the paragraph above stand; this adds the context they lacked.

Update, 4 October 2026. A second lender on the same question: NAB. Between 14 September and 2 October NAB raised its owner-occupier principal-and-interest fixed rates by 0.35 to 0.47 percentage points, and investor fixed rates by 0.30 to 0.45, in two steps. Owner-occupier interest-only fixed rates rose 0.15 to 0.25. The RBA’s cash rate rose 0.25 47. Those rises followed NAB’s 22 July cuts: 0.05 points in its one-year owner-occupier rate and 0.20 in its two-year, to 6.34 per cent, and 0.15 points across its investor fixed rates; at 6.81 per cent its two-year owner-occupier rate is 0.27 above its level before the cut, 6.54 per cent 48. The rates are for new loans 47. A NAB borrower part-way through a fixed term is not affected: NAB’s general terms say “Any rise in interest rates won’t be passed onto you while your rate is fixed” 49. When the term ends, the loan rolls onto a variable rate unless the borrower re-fixes, and a re-fixing borrower pays NAB’s “applicable advertised fixed indicator rate that’s published on the day the fixed rate period begins”, adjusted by any margins in the offer letter; none of the NAB pages THE RORT read says whether that rate equals its rates for new loans 49. A new article in this series, Above the 0.25, tests NAB’s fixed rises against swap rates and bond yields.

Correction, 7 October 2026. The first three paragraphs of this section now cite the Reserve Bank's April 2024 Bulletin 3, which finds that most pandemic fixed-rate borrowers fixed at around 2 to 2½ per cent, that a little more than half of those loans expired in 2023, that expiring loans repriced to an average of around 6½ per cent at December 2023 rates, and that expiries in each of the September and December quarters of 2023 were around 15 per cent of the fixed-rate stock. Reference 3 now gives the Bulletin's title and these findings. The subtitle said “hundreds of thousands of borrowers” rolled from 2 to 6.5 per cent “in a single day”; the Bulletin gives shares of loans, not a count, so it now says borrowers on about 2 per cent rolled onto about 6.5 per cent on the day their fixed term ended, most of them in 2023.

03Renters: the indirect hit

Renters did not have mortgages, so they were not directly affected by rate rises. They were affected indirectly, mainly through inflation and housing supply.

Update, 29 September 2026. The Reserve Bank agrees the direct effect is small, ‘very little direct effect’ on renters’ cash flows, but its March 2026 Financial Stability Review found the share of renters with at least one incident of financial stress was around twice that of owner-occupiers in 2024 1621. Governor Bullock said on 3 February 2026 that ‘renters are often struggling as well, inflation is what’s caused them lots of trouble’ 27. Rents rose 3.6 per cent over the year to July 2026, close to headline inflation of 3.5 per cent 28.

Update, 30 September 2026. The ABS published August CPI on 30 September. Rents rose 3.6 per cent over the 12 months to August 2026, the same rate as to July, while headline CPI rose 4.0 per cent, up from 3.5 per cent in July 4041. Against the August headline figure, rents are 0.4 percentage points below it (THE RORT’s subtraction); the comparison above, close to headline, is July’s.

The first channel: landlords. Most investment properties in Australia are financed by variable-rate mortgages. When the RBA raised rates, investors’ debt servicing costs rose. How much of that reached tenants is doubtful: Reserve Bank research finds little pass-through on average, though possibly more when vacancies are very low (see the correction below). With rental vacancy rates near historic lows, itself a consequence of insufficient housing construction over prior years, renters had little negotiating power. They could not easily leave.

Correction, 29 September 2026. The paragraph above said investors ‘passed those costs to tenants through rent increases’; that sentence, the subtitle’s ‘landlords passing on their own mortgage cost increases’ and ‘renters (landlord pass-through)’ in the pullquote at the end of this article overstated the evidence. Reserve Bank research using tax data from 2006-07 to 2018-19 finds investors on average raise rents by about one cent for each extra dollar of mortgage interest (at most three cents in rising-rate periods) and ‘limited evidence’ of pass-through overall, with rents driven mainly by demand relative to the housing stock; the same October 2024 Bulletin notes that pass-through may be higher when vacancies are very low, ‘as is currently the case’ 29. The paragraph above, the subtitle and the pullquote have been amended; the section heading, formerly ‘Renters: the double hit’, and the line ‘They were affected twice indirectly’ have been amended too. The pullquote’s closing line previously said ‘The people who caused the supply-shock inflation (global energy companies, pharmaceutical supply chain disruption, geopolitical actors) were unaffected by Australian rate rises’; that went beyond what THE RORT can source, and it has been reworded.

The second channel: housing construction. Higher interest rates reduce the viability of new residential construction: the cost of financing a development rises with the cash rate. In April 2023 the National Housing Finance and Investment Corporation forecast that new supply of both detached and higher-density homes would weaken in the short term on the back of higher interest rates, with construction cost inflation the highest in 40 years, and expected household formation to outrun new supply by about 106,300 dwellings over the five years to 2027 13.

Correction, 7 October 2026. The paragraph above said the rate cycle worsened the housing shortage, that fewer homes were built, that the shortage deepened and that rents rose further, citing nothing; the reference behind it, 13, pointed to the National Housing Finance and Investment Corporation’s homepage. Reference 13 now names that body’s State of the Nation’s Housing 2023, which forecast weaker new supply on the back of higher interest rates; the paragraph now reports that forecast and no longer states, without a source, what happened afterwards. The paragraph also said Australia’s housing shortage was already acute before 2022; THE RORT found no source for that in the housing body’s reports, and the sentence has been removed. Reference 10, which pointed to the Senate Economics Committee’s homepage and which no passage cited, now says it is not relied on.

04First home buyers: locked out

The rate cycle reduced household borrowing capacity substantially. The RBA’s own analysis found that the 225 basis point increase in the cash rate by mid-2022 alone had reduced maximum loan size by approximately 20 per cent. The full 425bp cycle reduced borrowing capacity by approximately 35 to 40 per cent.

A person on average earnings who could borrow A$600,000 before the cycle began could borrow approximately A$380,000 to A$400,000 at the peak. In Sydney, where median dwelling values exceed A$1 million, this meant the market was effectively closed. First home buyers who had spent years saving a deposit found that their purchasing power had been slashed, not by any change in their own circumstances, but by a central bank responding to a supply shock they had not caused.

Update, 29 September 2026. Early, unpublished research by James Graham (University of Sydney) and Avish Sharma (Northwestern University), reported by ABC News on 25 September 2026, estimates that a typical 0.25 point rise causes an immediate 5 per cent fall in home purchases and lowers home ownership by up to about 0.3 points four years later, close to 30,000 households, with younger and lower-income buyers hit hardest; each later rise has a smaller effect than the first 30. The Reserve Bank’s 29 September statement records that ‘new housing loans have declined noticeably’ 31.

05Real wages: the compound effect

The rate cycle did not occur in isolation. It occurred simultaneously with real wage falls that began in 2021. The RBA documented that real wages (wages adjusted for inflation) fell approximately 5 per cent from 2021 and remain around their 2023 trough.

Update, 29 September 2026. Real wages are falling again: the real Wage Price Index fell 0.7 per cent over the year to June 2026, with real wage growth forecast positive only from mid-2027 32. Unemployment was 4.6 per cent in August 2026, already at the level the Reserve Bank’s August forecast had for mid-2027; over the year 80,000 more people were unemployed while employment grew by 238,100 3233. Young people carry it first: youth unemployment rose to 10.8 per cent, up 1.1 points over the year against 0.4 points nationally 33. The Bank forecasts unemployment of 4.8 per cent by the end of 2028 32.

The Australia Institute’s arithmetic is stark: a couple with a A$660,000 mortgage who received the average 3.7 per cent wage increase saw their after-tax, after-mortgage, inflation-adjusted income fall 26 per cent in real terms over twelve months. Not because they lost their jobs or took pay cuts. Because inflation cut their purchasing power, higher taxes from bracket creep cut their take-home pay growth, and rising rates cut their disposable income.

On OECD figures, real household income per capita fell 5.1 per cent in 2023, what the OECD called a record fall, and a further 1.8 per cent in 2024, the largest decline of any OECD country that year, driven mainly by higher interest and tax payments 8.

The 13 rate rises were targeted at inflation. They hit: variable-rate mortgage holders (about A$1,210 more a month on a A$500,000 loan after 13 rises, on RateCity’s calculation); fixed-rate borrowers who rolled over (4.5 percentage point rate shock in a single day); renters (very little direct effect on their cash flows, the Reserve Bank finds, but more often in financial stress); first home buyers (35–40% borrowing capacity reduction); and workers whose real wages were already falling. The sources of the supply-shock inflation (global energy prices and supply chains) lay beyond the reach of Australian rate rises.
If it’s a rort, we cover it.

Correction, 7 October 2026. The pullquote said variable-rate borrowers paid A$1,210 more a month on a A$500,000 loan "by April 2024". That is RateCity's calculation of the 13 rises passed on in full 1, and the pullquote now says so. The fourth paragraph of this section said real household disposable incomes fell 6.1 per cent in the year to September 2023, the largest decline of any OECD country, "according to the AFR", and quoted economist Chris Richardson on the largest fall since 1959 and a recovery not before 2027; its reference 8 pointed to the AFR homepage. THE RORT could not find the article or a primary source for those figures. The paragraph now gives the OECD's own figures, a 5.1 per cent fall in real household income per capita in 2023 and a further 1.8 per cent in 2024, the largest decline in the OECD that year, and reference 8 now names that OECD release. The Richardson remarks have been removed, and the key fact and the subtitle, which repeated the 6.1 per cent figure, have been amended. The image at the head of this article has been updated to match: it no longer shows the 69 per cent, 6.1 per cent, 35 per cent or 2027 figures.

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From the desk
  • 29 September 2027Review
    Review: one year after the 29 September 2026 update
    The authored watch rows suppress this article’s yearly review cadence; this row replaces it.
    Read the desk note

    REVIEW 29 September 2027 (case: THE INFLATION RORT). Re-read this article against the record a year after the round-2 update: every dated note, every figure marked as a forecast or projection, and every early or unpublished finding (the Graham and Sharma study). NEXT DATE: none set.

  • 15 October 2026Watch
    Watch: Macquarie’s announced home loan rate rise takes effect
    Macquarie’s variable home loan reference rates rise 0.25 points from this date.
    Read the desk note

    WATCH 15 October 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT). Macquarie’s own page says its variable home loan reference rates rise by 0.25 percentage points from 15 October 2026. Check the dates other lenders have announced (Teachers Mutual Bank Limited: variable home loans from 8 October 2026; CBA, Westpac, NAB and ANZ: from 9 October 2026), and whether Canstar’s projection that four 2026 rises add about A$364 a month on a A$600,000 loan still holds; update the 29 September note on 2026 repayments if it does not. NEXT DATE: 28 October 2026, September quarter CPI.

  • 9 October 2026Watch
    Watch: CBA, Westpac, NAB and ANZ variable home loan rises take effect
    The big four's variable home loan rises take effect as announced on 30 September.
    Read the desk note

    WATCH 9 October 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT). CBA, Westpac, NAB and ANZ each announced on 30 September a rise of 0.25 per cent a year in variable home loan rates, effective 9 October 2026 (their own pages and releases; CBA and ANZ say existing customers see the new rate from 10 October). Check that each bank's own rate page shows the new rates in force, and update the 30 September note in the mortgage holders section if any bank changes its announcement. NEXT DATE: 15 October 2026, Macquarie’s announced home loan rate rise takes effect.

  • 4 October 2026Record
    Record: article 4 updated, 4 October 2026
    One correction (Macquarie's June fixed-rate cuts) and one update (NAB's fixed-rate rises, its 22 July cuts and its rollover terms), both in the section on fixed-rate rollovers.
    Read the desk note

    UPDATED 4 October 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT, article 4).

    ARTICLE CHANGES. One correction and one update, in the section on fixed-rate rollovers. Correction: the update of 30 September said Macquarie's owner-occupier fixed rates were 0.30 to 0.50 points higher on 30 September than on 13 August without saying that Macquarie cut them by 0.25 to 0.50 on 5 June; its rates on 30 September (unchanged on 3 October) are 0.05 above the pre-June levels at one and two years, level at three and four years and 0.10 below at five. Update: NAB, a second lender: owner-occupier principal and interest fixed rates for new loans up 0.35 to 0.47 points in two steps between 14 September and 2 October, after 22 July cuts of 0.05 in its owner-occupier one-year rate and 0.20 in its two-year rate, which at 6.81 per cent is 0.27 above its pre-cut 6.54 per cent, and 0.15 on its investor fixed rates; borrowers part-way through a fixed term unaffected under NAB's general terms; at the end of a fixed term the loan rolls onto a variable rate unless re-fixed, at NAB's advertised fixed indicator rate on the day plus any offer-letter margin. Pointer to article 24. Four references added.

    STILL OPEN. Whether NAB's indicator rate for a re-fixing customer equals its rates for new loans.

    NEXT DATE: 9 October 2026, the big four's variable home loan rises take effect.

  • 30 September 2026Record
    Record: article 4 updated three times, 30 September 2026
    Three dated entries, in time order: the big four as at about 5.00 am, the pass-throughs and Macquarie's fixed home loan rises; rents against the ABS August CPI; and the four major banks' announcements of 30 September with ANZ's dollar figure.
    Read the desk note

    UPDATED 30 September 2026, three entries (case: THE INFLATION RORT, article 4). The calendar keys one record to each article and date, so the day's entries are kept together here in time order, each as written; the NEXT DATE line of the last entry is the current one.

    ENTRY 1 OF 3 (as at about 5.00 am AEST).

    ARTICLE CHANGES. Two updates. Mortgage holders: the four major banks' own pages as at about 5.00 am AEST on 30 September (none had announced a decision), the two verified dated pass-throughs to borrowers (Macquarie from 15 October, Teachers Mutual Bank Limited from 8 October), and Teachers Mutual Bank Limited's own repayment example (about A$62 a month on an A$400,000 loan over 25 years at 6.00 per cent). Fixed-rate rollovers: Macquarie's owner-occupier fixed rates for new loans were 0.30 to 0.50 points higher on 30 September than on 13 August, in two rises, the first dated by media reports to 8 September and the second reported on 24 September.

    STILL OPEN. The big four's response to the 29 September rise (none announced a decision on the pages read at about 5.00 am AEST on 30 September).

    NEXT DATE: 15 October 2026, Macquarie's announced 0.25 point rise in its variable home loan reference rates takes effect.

    ENTRY 2 OF 3 (on the ABS August CPI).

    ARTICLE CHANGES. One update in the renters section: the ABS published August CPI on 30 September, annual CPI 4.0 per cent (3.5 per cent in July); rents rose 3.6 per cent over the year to August, 0.4 percentage points below headline, where the article's July paragraph compared July's 3.6 with July's 3.5. Two references added. No published sentence was rewritten.

    STILL OPEN. Nothing new opened by this update.

    NEXT DATE: 15 October 2026.

    ENTRY 3 OF 3 (in the evening, from 5.40 pm AEST).

    ARTICLE CHANGES. One update, in the mortgage holders section: the four major banks' own pages and releases, read between 5.40 pm and 5.43 pm AEST on 30 September. CBA, Westpac, NAB and ANZ each announced a rise of 0.25 per cent a year in variable home loan rates, effective 9 October 2026 (one day after Teachers Mutual Bank Limited's 8 October and six days before Macquarie's 15 October). Only ANZ gives a dollar figure, about A$79 a month on an A$500,000 owner-occupier loan with principal and interest repayments (A$15.80 for each A$100,000, THE RORT's arithmetic). The update of about 5.00 am stands as the record of that time.

    WATCH ENTRIES. The 15 October watch was rewritten to add the big four's 9 October date to the dates to check, and a new 9 October watch records their announced rises taking effect.

    STILL OPEN. What borrowers will actually pay: the banks publish reference or index rates, and the discounted rates individual customers pay are not published.

    NEXT DATE: 9 October 2026, the big four's announced variable home loan rises take effect.

  • 29 September 2026Record
    Record: article 4 updated, 29 September 2026
    Eight dated notes: two corrections (landlord pass-through; mortgage stress figure), six updates.
    Read the desk note

    UPDATED 29 September 2026 (case: THE INFLATION RORT, article 4 of 19 published).

    ARTICLE CHANGES. Corrections: landlord pass-through overstated (paragraph, subtitle, section heading and pullquote amended); the pullquote’s closing line on the sources of the supply shock reworded; the ‘1.5 million households at mortgage stress’ figure and the linked ‘1 in 50 severe stress’ line withdrawn as unverified (THE RORT reads the cited source as describing mortgage holders, and Roy Morgan’s model counts people), replaced with Roy Morgan’s July 2026 estimate in the subtitle, caption, fact box, key facts and image. Updates: the RBA’s distributional estimates; 2026 repayments (Canstar projection, ABS living costs, Roy Morgan beside the RBA’s measures); fewer than 5 per cent of mortgages fixed; renters; unpublished home-ownership research; real wages, unemployment and youth unemployment.

    STILL OPEN. The big four’s response to the 29 September rise (none announced a decision on the pages read at about 5.00 am AEST on 30 September).

    NEXT DATE: 15 October 2026, Macquarie’s announced 0.25 point rise in its variable home loan reference rates takes effect.

The desk record →
THE RORT STANDARD 1.0: published before 1.0, not yet reviewed
This piece was published before the standard took effect on 8 Oct 2026 and has not been reviewed against it. What follows is what its own data records, not a finding that it meets the standard.
RS-1 26 of 50 references are primary documents (Tier 1). Enforced on new pieces by the release gate (RS-1.1) and the desk record.
RS-2 50 references: resolves checked 13, exists confirmed 0, supports confirmed 0, the rest unchecked. Enforced on new pieces by the release gate (RS-2.1) and the desk record.
RS-3 Case counter: MODELLED by THE RORT (inputs on the counter). Enforced by the release gate (RS-3.1 to RS-3.4) and the desk record.
RS-4 Not graded: published before 1.0. Enforced on new pieces by the release gate (RS-4.1 to RS-4.2) and the desk record.
RS-5 Right of reply: not recorded for this article. Enforced on new pieces by the release gate (RS-5.1 to RS-5.8) and the desk record.
RS-6 Unnamed sources not yet declared (published before 1.0). Enforced on new pieces by the release gate (RS-6.1 to RS-6.2) and the desk record.
RS-7 Corrections: 29 Sep 2026, 4 Oct 2026, 7 Oct 2026, 8 Oct 2026. Enforced by the release gate (RS-7.1 to RS-7.2) and the desk record.
RS-8 None declared. Enforced by the release gate (RS-8.1) and the desk record.
RS-10 No desk sign-off: published before 1.0. Enforced on new pieces by the release gate (RS-10.1) and the desk record.
RS-11 Complaints: desk@therort.com.au. Factual errors: corrections@therort.com.au. Acknowledged within five business days. Enforced by the release gate (RS-11.1 to RS-11.4) and the desk record.
The standard in full · How corrections work
References & Sources50 sources · all linked
Evidence strength
  • Primary 26
  • Official 11
  • Masthead 1
  • Trade 12
Primary
the document itself: legislation, a court record, a filing, a regulator’s own publication
Official
the organisation’s own statement about itself
Masthead
a news organisation with a corrections policy, reporting the primary document
Trade
specialist or trade press
How sources are graded

A check appears under a source only where one is on record: a machine test of whether the link loads, and, where the desk has made the call, whether the document exists and whether it carries the claim. Nothing is shown for a check that is not on record. What these checks mean

  1. TradeRateCity, article on the prospect of a 13th rate rise (2023). https://www.ratecity.com.au/home-loans/news/melbourne-cup-rate-hike-live-possibility-13th-hike-mean-forborrowers. For an average owner-occupier who started with a A$500,000 debt at a 2.86 per cent variable rate, a 13th rise would add A$76 a month, and the 13 rises together would lift monthly repayments by A$1,210, a 52 per cent increase since the start of the rises in May 2022.
  2. TradeRoy Morgan via UNSW BusinessThink (October 2023 figure, withdrawn). https://www.businessthink.unsw.edu.au/articles/big-bank-profits-interest-rates-mortgage-stress-RBA. This reference was cited for ‘1.5 million households at mortgage stress’; as THE RORT reads it, the page describes mortgage holders, not households, and THE RORT could not verify the figure, so the article no longer uses it. See the Correction of 29 September 2026 and [20].
    • Link loaded when machine-checked, 2026-08-16
  3. PrimaryRBA Bulletin (Benjamin Ung), "Cash Rate Pass-through to Outstanding Mortgage Rates" (April 2024). https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2024/apr/cash-rate-pass-through-to-outstanding-mortgage-rates.html. Most borrowers who fixed during the pandemic did so at around 2–2½ per cent; a little more than half of those loans expired in 2023; at December 2023 rates, expiring fixed-rate loans repriced to an average of around 6½ per cent; expiries in each of the September and December quarters of 2023 were around 15 per cent of fixed-rate loans outstanding at December 2022. The same bulletin's abstract: the average outstanding mortgage rate increased by around 320 basis points between May 2022 and December 2023, around 105 basis points less than the cumulative 425 basis point increase in the cash rate, with pass-through slowed by a high share of fixed-rate loans and by lending competition.
    • Link loaded when machine-checked, 2026-08-16
  4. PrimaryRBA: borrowing capacity reduction per 225bp increase. https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2022/sp-so-2022-09-19.html. 225bp increase reduced maximum loan size by around 20%. Full 425bp cycle: borrowing capacity reduced approximately 35–40%.
    • Link loaded when machine-checked, 2026-08-16
  5. TradeUNSW BusinessThink: mortgage stress and bank profits December 2023. https://www.businessthink.unsw.edu.au/articles/big-bank-profits-interest-rates-mortgage-stress-RBA. Its ‘1.5 million mortgage holders’ figure is withdrawn from this article (see [2]). Banks passed on rate rises to borrowers faster and more completely than to depositors.
    • Link loaded when machine-checked, 2026-08-16
  6. PrimaryGrattan Institute / RBA conference: renters double impact. https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/confs/2023/pdf/rba-conference-2023-wood-chan-coates.pdf. Rate rises affect renters through landlord cost pass-through and reduced housing construction. See [29] and the Correction of 29 September 2026: RBA research finds limited evidence of pass-through.
    • Link loaded when machine-checked, 2026-08-16
  7. TradeAustralia Institute: double whammy analysis November 2023. https://australiainstitute.org.au/post/real-wage-falls-and-rate-rises-make-for-a-double-whammy/. Typical couple with A$660K mortgage: after-tax, after-mortgage income fell 26% in real terms over twelve months.
    • Link loaded when machine-checked, 2026-08-16
  8. PrimaryOECD, "Growth and economic well-being: Fourth quarter 2024" (statistical release, May 2025). https://www.oecd.org/en/data/insights/statistical-releases/2025/05/growth-and-economic-well-being-fourth-quarter-2024-oecd.html. Australia recorded the largest decline in real household income per capita among OECD countries in 2024 (-1.8 per cent), improved from a record fall in 2023 (-5.1 per cent), driven mainly by higher interest and tax payments.
  9. PrimaryRBA: real wages declined ~5% since 2021. https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2024/oct/developments-in-wages-growth-across-pay-setting-methods.html. Real wages (WPI measure) declined approximately 5% since 2021 and remain around their 2023 trough.
    • Link loaded when machine-checked, 2026-08-16
  10. PrimarySmall business: rate rises and business loans. https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Economics. No longer relied on (7 October 2026): this pointed to the Senate Economics Committee’s homepage, not a document, and no passage of this article cites it or makes its claim about business loans.
    • Link loaded when machine-checked, 2026-08-16
  11. TradeWSWS: real household disposable income analysis. https://redflag.org.au/article/five-charts-showing-the-destruction-of-workers-living-standards/. Real household disposable incomes more than 10% lower than in 2021. Workers’ living costs climbed 9.6% per annum at peak.
    • Link loaded when machine-checked, 2026-08-16
  12. PrimaryGrattan Institute: effective inflation rate higher for low-income households. https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/confs/2023/pdf/rba-conference-2023-wood-chan-coates.pdf. Over 70% of bottom income quintile spending on essentials. Non-discretionary items rose 4.8% in 2023 vs headline CPI.
    • Link loaded when machine-checked, 2026-08-16
  13. PrimaryNational Housing Finance and Investment Corporation (now Housing Australia), "State of the Nation’s Housing 2023" (event presentation, April 2023). https://www.housingaustralia.gov.au/sites/default/files/2023-04/state_of_the_nations_housing_2023_-_event_presentation.pdf. Construction cost inflation was the highest in 40 years; both detached and multi-density supply (net of demolitions) were set to weaken in the short term on the back of higher interest rates; a supply-household formation gap of 106,300 dwellings was expected over the five years to 2027.
  14. TradeUNSW BusinessThink page (same as [2] and [5]), cited for a ‘1 in 50 mortgage holders severe financial stress’ line attributed to the RBA. Withdrawn: THE RORT could not verify it and the article no longer uses it. See the Correction of 29 September 2026; for the Reserve Bank’s own severe-stress measure see [21]. https://www.businessthink.unsw.edu.au/articles/big-bank-profits-interest-rates-mortgage-stress-RBA
    • Link loaded when machine-checked, 2026-08-16
  15. TradeAustralia Institute: distributional analysis of rate rises. https://australiainstitute.org.au/post/real-wage-falls-and-rate-rises-make-for-a-double-whammy/. Rate rises are regressive: they hurt households with debt more than households without debt. The 13 rate rises transferred wealth from younger, more-indebted households to older, less-indebted households and to financial institutions.
    • Link loaded when machine-checked, 2026-08-16
  16. PrimaryRBA Bulletin (Jennison and Miller): An Update on the Household Cash Flow Channel of Monetary Policy, 30 January 2025. https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2025/jan/an-update-on-the-household-cash-flow-channel-of-monetary-policy.html. ‘We estimate that a 100 basis point increase in the cash rate would lower total household disposable income by around 0.2 per cent in September quarter 2024’; loss highest for households aged 30 to 54; higher-income households’ cash flows fall in aggregate, and among households with housing debt the impact is greater for lower-income households; the median outright owner’s increase is ‘only around one-third’ of the median mortgagor’s decrease; renters have ‘very little direct effect’ on their cash flows.
  17. TradeCanstar (Alasdair Duncan): RBA September Cash Rate Hike, 29 September 2026. https://www.canstar.com.au/news/rba-cash-rate-september-2026-hike-25/. A projection for an owner-occupier making principal and interest repayments with 25 years remaining, assuming a September rise passed on from the following month: A$600,000 loan +A$91 a month from this rise (+A$364 across the four 2026 rises); A$500,000 +A$76 (+A$303).
  18. OfficialCBA, Westpac, NAB and ANZ rate pages, re-checked 4.44 pm to 4.46 pm AEST on 29 September 2026. https://www.commbank.com.au/news/rate-announcement.html; https://www.commbank.com.au/news/savings-rate-announcement.html; https://www.westpac.com.au/personal-banking/home-loans/manage-home-loan/latest-interest-rate-changes/; https://www.nab.com.au/news/interest-rates/change-to-nab-home-loan-rate; https://www.anz.com.au/personal/home-loans/interest-rates/rate-changes/. None had announced a change to variable home loan, savings or term deposit rates; CBA said its savings rates were under review; Westpac said its rates were ‘currently under review’ and ANZ said it was reviewing its home loan and residential investment loan rates.
  19. PrimaryABS: Selected Living Cost Indexes, Australia, June quarter 2026, 5 August 2026. https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/selected-living-cost-indexes-australia/latest-release. ‘Employee households recorded the largest rise in living costs this quarter of 1.5%’; mortgage interest charges rose 8.2% as banks passed on the RBA’s February, March and May cash rate increases.
  20. TradeRoy Morgan: Mortgage stress risk, July 2026, 1 September 2026. https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/10318-mortgage-stress-risk-july-2026. 32.5% of mortgage holders (1,786,000 people) ‘At Risk’, ‘the highest level of mortgage stress for 18 years’. A survey model; the figure counts people, not households.
  21. PrimaryRBA Financial Stability Review, March 2026: Resilience of Australian Households and Businesses, 19 March 2026. https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/fsr/2026/mar/resilience-of-australian-households-and-businesses.html. Housing arrears back to around pre-pandemic levels; share of mortgagors in severe financial stress ‘is small’; most borrowers have large liquidity and equity buffers, though lower-income households have the thinnest; the share of renters experiencing at least one incident of financial stress was around two times that of owner-occupiers.
  22. PrimaryRBA Financial Stability Review, March 2026 (full document), March 2026. https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/fsr/2026/mar/pdf/financial-stability-review-2026-03.pdf. ‘A little over 1 per cent of variable-rate owner-occupier borrowers were estimated to be experiencing a cash flow shortfall as at the end of 2025’.
  23. PrimaryRBA Bulletin (Hutchinson, Manning and Searle): Developments in Banks’ Funding Costs and Lending Rates, 28 May 2026. https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2026/may/pdf/developments-in-banks-funding-costs-and-lending-rates.pdf. ‘The share of outstanding housing loans with fixed rates fell to a historical low of less than 5 per cent in 2025’; over five years offset accounts rose from around 40 to 55 per cent of housing loan facilities and redraw from around 70 to 80 per cent.
  24. PrimaryRBA Statement on Monetary Policy, May 2026: Financial Conditions, 1 May 2026. https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2026/may/financial-conditions.html. ‘Cash rate increases can take up to three months to flow through to minimum required variable-rate mortgage payments.’
  25. PrimaryRBA (Christopher Kent): speech, 18 November 2024. https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2024/sp-ag-2024-11-18.html. ‘The share of Australian mortgages at fixed rates has averaged around 20 per cent over the past two decades’.
  26. PrimaryRBA Statement on Monetary Policy, February 2023, Box A: Mortgage Interest Payments in Advanced Economies, 10 February 2023. https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2023/feb/box-a-mortgage-interest-payments-in-advanced-economies.html. ‘during the COVID-19 pandemic, the share of mortgages with fixed interest rates roughly doubled in Australia (peaking at almost 40 per cent in early 2022)’.
  27. PrimaryRBA: Governor’s press conference transcript, 3 February 2026. https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2026/mc-gov-2026-02-03.html. ‘it’s not just people with mortgages, renters are often struggling as well, inflation is what’s caused them lots of trouble.’
  28. PrimaryABS: Consumer Price Index, Australia, July 2026, 26 August 2026. https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/consumer-price-index-australia/latest-release. ‘Rental prices rose 3.6% in the 12 months to July 2026, unchanged from the annual rise to June and May 2026.’ Headline CPI 3.5%. Update, 30 September 2026: the latest-release address now shows August; the July release is at https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/consumer-price-index-australia/jul-2026.
  29. PrimaryRBA Bulletin: Do Housing Investors Pass Through Changes in Their Interest Costs to Rents?, 17 October 2024. https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2024/oct/do-housing-investors-pass-through-changes-in-their-interest-costs-to-rents.html. ‘On average, we find that for every dollar increase in their mortgage interest costs, investors increase their rents by one cent’; ‘limited evidence that investors pass-through changes in their interest costs to their rents’; estimates use 2006-07 to 2018-19 tax data; pass-through may be higher when vacancies are very low, ‘as is currently the case’.
  30. MastheadABC News (Michael Janda): rate rise and home ownership study, 25 September 2026. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-09-25/rate-rise-home-ownership-impact-study/107191644. Unpublished research by James Graham and Avish Sharma: ‘a typical 0.25 percentage point increase in interest rates caused an immediate 5 per cent decline in home purchases’; ‘each subsequent rate rise produced a smaller shock than those before it’. Early, unpublished findings reported by a single outlet.
  31. PrimaryRBA: Statement by the Monetary Policy Board, Media Release 2026-27, 29 September 2026, 2.30 pm AEST. https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html. ‘housing prices have fallen in most capital cities and new housing loans have declined noticeably.’
  32. PrimaryRBA Statement on Monetary Policy, August 2026: Outlook, Table 3.1. https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2026/aug/outlook.html. Real Wage Price Index −0.7% over the year to June 2026, real wage growth positive from mid-2027; unemployment forecast 4.4% (June 2026), 4.5% (December 2026), 4.6% (June 2027), rising ‘gradually to 4.8 per cent by end-2028’.
  33. PrimaryABS: Labour Force, Australia, August 2026, 24 September 2026. https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/employment-and-unemployment/labour-force-australia/aug-2026. Unemployment 4.6% (seasonally adjusted); over the year unemployed people rose 80,000 to 722,900 and employment rose 238,100 to 14,836,600; ‘The youth unemployment rate increased by 0.4ppt to 10.8%.’ The ABS flags a survey method change and calls the August data fit for purpose. Youth rate 9.7% a year earlier (ABS Table 013). The national unemployment rate rose 0.4 points over the year (same ABS release, August 2026).
  34. PrimaryRBA: Cash Rate Target history. https://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/cash-rate/. Rise of 0.25 points effective 30 September 2026, to 4.60%; ‘any change in the cash rate target taking effect the following day’.
    • Link loaded when machine-checked, 2026-08-16
  35. OfficialMacquarie: “Macquarie Bank’s response to the RBA’s interest rate decision”, media release, 29 September 2026, fetched 05:01 AEST, 30 September 2026. https://www.macquarie.com/au/en/about/news/2026/macquarie-banks-response-to-the-rba-interest-rate-decision.html. “Macquarie will increase variable home loan reference rates by 0.25% p.a. effective from 15 October 2026. Macquarie will also increase the ongoing variable interest rates paid on its transaction and savings accounts from 15 October 2026.” Transaction Account, current then from 15 October 2026: “$0 - $250,000 2.75% p.a. 3.00% p.a. $250,000.01 - $2,000,000 2.75% p.a. 3.00% p.a. $2,000,000.01 and above 2.75% p.a. 3.00% p.a.” Savings Account, current then from 15 October 2026: “$0 - $250,000 5.00% p.a. 5.25% p.a. $250,000.01 - $2,000,000 5.00% p.a. 5.05% p.a. $2,000,000.01 and above 2.75% p.a. 4.60% p.a.” The differences (25 basis points on every Transaction Account tier; 25, 5 and 185 basis points on the Savings Account) are THE RORT’s calculation. The release prints only the Transaction and Savings tables, and the words “term deposit” and “fixed” do not appear in its text.
  36. OfficialMacquarie: Home loan rates page, owner-occupier principal and interest, fixed rates for loans up to 70% of the property value. Live page, fetched 05:01 AEST, 30 September 2026: https://www.macquarie.com.au/home-loans/home-loan-rates.html. “1 year fixed rate ° <= 70% 6.49% pa” “2 year fixed rate ° <= 70% 6.59% pa” “3 year fixed rate ° <= 70% 6.59% pa” “4 year fixed rate ° <= 70% 6.64% pa” “5 year fixed rate ° <= 70% 6.64% pa”; “Rates are for new loans and are subject to change.” Web-archive capture of 13 August 2026 (fetched 05:10 AEST, 30 September 2026): https://web.archive.org/web/20260813042020id_/https://www.macquarie.com.au/home-loans/home-loan-rates.html. “1 year fixed rate ° <= 70% 6.19% pa” “2 year fixed rate ° <= 70% 6.14% pa” “3 year fixed rate ° <= 70% 6.09% pa” “4 year fixed rate ° <= 70% 6.29% pa” “5 year fixed rate ° <= 70% 6.29% pa”. Capture of 13 September 2026 (fetched 05:08 AEST): https://web.archive.org/web/20260913015726id_/https://www.macquarie.com.au/home-loans/home-loan-rates.html, “1 year fixed rate ° <= 70% 6.39% pa” and “4 year fixed rate ° <= 70% 6.44% pa”. The net changes since 13 August (+0.30, +0.45, +0.50, +0.35 and +0.35 points) are THE RORT’s arithmetic; comparison rates are not quoted. Macquarie’s newsroom page, https://www.macquarie.com.au/newsroom.html (05:01 AEST), lists no release on either fixed-rate rise. Absence on that page at that time only.
  37. TradeMedia reports of the dates of Macquarie’s two September fixed-rate rises (secondary; the sizes are from Macquarie’s own pages), all fetched 05:01 AEST, 30 September 2026. savings.com.au (Denise Raward), “Macquarie hikes fixed home loan rates”, published 8 September 2026: https://www.savings.com.au/news/macquarie-fixed-home-loan-rate-increase. “Australia’s fifth-largest home lender has lifted its fixed home loan rates by up to 30 basis points on Tuesday.” savings.com.au (Denise Raward), “Macquarie lifts fixed home loan rates - again”, published 24 September 2026: https://www.savings.com.au/news/macquarie-lifts-fixed-home-loan-rates-again. Brokernews (Mina Martin), 24 September 2026: https://www.brokernews.com.au/news/breaking-news/macquarie-fixed-rates-rise-again-as-18-lenders-reprice-in-september-290035.aspx. “Its 24 September increases of up to 0.20 percentage points follow a round of up to 0.30 percentage points on 8 September.”
  38. OfficialTeachers Mutual Bank Limited: announcement of increased interest rates, news centre, dated 29 September 2026, fetched 04:59 AEST, 30 September 2026. https://www.tmbl.com.au/news-centre/teachers-mutual-bank-announces-increase-interest-rates. “Following the decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia to increase the official cash rate by 0.25% p.a., Teachers Mutual Bank Limited will increase interest rates by 0.25% p.a. across its variable home loan products, effective 8 October 2026 and variable savings products, effective Thursday, 1 October 2026.” “The increase to variable home loan and variable savings rates announced today will be applied across Teachers Mutual Bank Limited’s five retail brands - Teachers Mutual Bank, Australian Mutual Bank, Firefighters Mutual Bank, Health Professionals Bank and UniBank.” Greg Johnson, Chief Customer Officer: “A large number of our members also have significant savings with the bank, and this rate change provides higher returns on the money they have worked hard to put aside.” “Repayments will change on or after 1 November 2026”; “for a $400,000 home loan over 25 years with an interest rate of 6.00%, an increase of 0.25% would result in an approximate increase of $62 per month” ($2,577 to $2,639 in the bank’s table; the figure was recomputed and holds). The bank states no rate levels.
  39. OfficialThe four major banks’ own rate pages, fetched between 04:59 and 05:00 AEST on 30 September 2026. CBA home loans: https://www.commbank.com.au/news/rate-announcement.html, “5 May 2026 Following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) cash rate decision, and after considering other relevant factors, we will increase our home loan variable interest rates by 0.25% p.a. effective Friday 15 May 2026.” CBA savings: https://www.commbank.com.au/news/savings-rate-announcement.html, “29 September 2026” “Following The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) cash rate decision, we’re currently reviewing the interest rates for savings products.” CBA home page: https://www.commbank.com.au/, an undated banner, “The Reserve Bank of Australia has increased the cash rate. We’re reviewing our rates and will share an update soon.” (seen 04:59 AEST, 30 September; when it first appeared is not known). Westpac: https://www.westpac.com.au/personal-banking/home-loans/manage-home-loan/latest-interest-rate-changes/, “Tuesday, 29th September 2026 announcement” “The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has today announced an increase in the official cash rate. As a result, our interest rates are currently under review. We will announce any changes to our Home Loan variable rates on this page once a decision has been made.” NAB: https://www.nab.com.au/news/interest-rates/change-to-nab-home-loan-rate, newest dated rate entry “03 February 2026” (“NAB’s standard variable home loan interest rate will rise by 0.25% p.a. from 13 February 2026.”); https://www.nab.com.au/news, newest date 28 September 2026. ANZ: https://www.anz.com.au/personal/home-loans/interest-rates/rate-changes/, “29 September 2026” “The Reserve Bank of Australia has announced an increase to the cash rate of 0.25%. ANZ is reviewing its home loan and residential investment loan interest rates accordingly and will provide any update here shortly.” Absences are as at the fetch times only; term deposit pages were not re-read.
  40. PrimaryAustralian Bureau of Statistics: media release, “CPI rose 4.0% in the year to August 2026” (Consumer Price Index, Australia, August 2026), released 30 September 2026, 11:30am AEST. https://www.abs.gov.au/media-centre/media-releases/cpi-rose-40-year-august-2026. Fetched 11:54 AEST, 30 September 2026. “The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 4.0 per cent in the 12 months to August 2026, up from 3.5 per cent in the 12 months to July”.
  41. PrimaryAustralian Bureau of Statistics: Consumer Price Index, Australia, August 2026, release page, released 30 September 2026, 11:30am AEST. https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/consumer-price-index-australia/aug-2026. Fetched 11:54 AEST, 30 September 2026. “The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 4.0%, up from 3.5% in the 12 months to July 2026. Trimmed mean inflation was 3.6%, unchanged from the 12 months to July 2026. In the month of August, the CPI rose 0.4% in original and 0.7% in seasonally adjusted terms.”; “The main contributors to the annual rise were New dwellings (+5.4%), Electricity (+13.2%) and Rents (+3.6%).” (Housing group); “Rental prices rose 3.6% in the 12 months to August 2026, unchanged since May 2026.”.
  42. OfficialCommonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA): home loan rate announcement page, https://www.commbank.com.au/news/rate-announcement.html, dated 30 September 2026, fetched 17:40 AEST, 30 September 2026. “Following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) cash rate decision, and after considering other relevant factors, we’re increasing our variable home loan interest rates by 0.25% p.a. effective Friday 9 October 2026. Existing home loan customers will be able to see their new interest rate from Saturday 10 October 2026 in the CommBank app and NetBank.” CBA newsroom, “CBA interest rate decision”, https://www.commbank.com.au/articles/newsroom/2026/09/CBA-interest-rates-september.html, dated 30 September 2026, fetched 17:43 AEST. “Following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) decision to increase the official cash rate by 0.25% per annum (p.a.), CBA will increase home loan variable interest rates by 0.25% p.a.” “All CommBank home loan variable rate changes announced today will be effective 9 October 2026.” “CBA’s Group Executive Retail Banking, Angus Sullivan said the RBA’s decision comes amid persistent inflation and continued global uncertainty, both contributing to broader economic pressures.” CBA savings rate page, https://www.commbank.com.au/news/savings-rate-announcement.html, dated 29 September 2026, fetched 17:40 AEST. “Following The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) cash rate decision, we’re currently reviewing the interest rates for savings products.” The release states no savings or term deposit change and gives no dollar repayment figure. CBA’s release adds: “Those experiencing financial difficulty can also connect with CBA’s Financial Assistance Solutions Team, who can talk through their situation and discuss what support may be available.”
  43. OfficialWestpac: media release, “Westpac announces interest rate changes”, dated 30 September 2026, https://www.westpac.com.au/about-westpac/media/media-releases/2026/30-september/, fetched 17:40 AEST, 30 September 2026. “Following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to increase the cash rate, Westpac has announced interest rate changes for home loan and deposit customers.” “Westpac will increase home loan variable interest rates by 0.25% p.a. for new and existing customers, effective 9 October.” “Westpac Life total variable rate with bonus interest will increase by 0.25% p.a. to 5.25% p.a., effective 9 October.” Footnote: “The standard variable bonus rate on Westpac Life will increase by 0.25% p.a.” “At the same time, higher interest rates on deposit accounts will be welcome news for customers looking to grow their savings,” Carolyn McCann, Westpac Chief Executive, Consumer, said. Westpac home loan page, https://www.westpac.com.au/personal-banking/home-loans/manage-home-loan/latest-interest-rate-changes/, fetched 17:40 AEST: “Wednesday, 30th September 2026 announcement”; “we have announced the following changes to our variable home loan interest rates effective Friday, 9th October 2026”; Owner Occupier Loan “+ 0.25% p.a.”, Investment Property Loan “+ 0.25% p.a.”. The release names no other savings or term deposit product. The release adds: “Those experiencing financial difficulty can contact Westpac Assist for personalised support on 1800 067 497.”
  44. OfficialNAB: news release, “NAB announces home loan interest rate changes”, headed “30 September”, and listed as 30 September 2026 in Related Articles on NAB’s older home loan rate page (below). https://www.nab.com.au/news/interest-rates/nab-announces-home-loan-interest-rate-changes. Fetched 17:40 AEST, 30 September 2026. “Following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to increase the official cash rate by 0.25% per annum, NAB will increase its variable home loan interest rates by 0.25% p.a.” “The new rates will take effect from October 9.” “This change applies to NAB standard variable home loan rates.” “NAB also regularly reviews its savings and deposit rates.” The release quotes NAB Group Executive Personal Banking, Ana Marinkovic, and gives no dollar repayment figure. NAB’s older page, https://www.nab.com.au/news/interest-rates/change-to-nab-home-loan-rate, fetched 17:40 AEST, still showed “03 February 2026” and “NAB’s standard variable home loan interest rate will rise by 0.25% p.a. from 13 February 2026.” NAB’s release adds: “Any NAB customer experiencing financial difficulty is encouraged to contact NAB Care on 1800 701 599 as early as possible.”
  45. OfficialANZ: media release, “ANZ changes variable home loan rates”, dated 30 September 2026, https://www.anz.com.au/newsroom/media/2026/september/anz-changes-variable-home-loan-rates/, fetched 17:40 AEST, 30 September 2026. “ANZ today announced it will increase interest rates for variable rate home loan customers following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to increase the official cash rate yesterday.” “Variable interest rates across ANZ’s Australian home loans will increase by 0.25% p.a., effective 9 October 2026. ANZ continues to review other interest rates.” “A 0.25% p.a. increase to variable home loan rates will increase monthly repayments by approximately $79 on a variable home loan of $500,000 for an owner occupier loan with principal and interest repayments.” ANZ rate announcement page, https://www.anz.com.au/personal/home-loans/interest-rates/rate-changes/, dated 30 September 2026, fetched 17:40 AEST: “Effective 9 October 2026, ANZ will increase variable interest rates for home, residential investment and line of credit home loans by 0.25% p.a.” The page says it does not apply to ANZ Plus products, and defers to the ANZ Plus website for those. The release lists among the tools ANZ has available to help customers: “enquire about home loan repayment support”.
  46. TradeCanstar (Laine Gordon), “ANZ, Macquarie go against the tide, cutting fixed rates: could we be at the peak?”, 5 June 2026, https://www.canstar.com.au/news/anz-macquarie-cutting-fixed-rates/, fetched 12:36 AEST, 3 October 2026: Macquarie “has also made sweeping cuts to its fixed rates today”; “Macquarie fixed rate cuts Term Old rate from New rate from Change %-pts 1-year 6.44% 6.19% -0.25 2-year 6.54% 6.14% -0.40 3-year 6.59% 6.09% -0.50 4-year 6.64% 6.29% -0.35 5-year 6.74% 6.29% -0.45”; “Rates based on owner-occupier fixed-rate loans. LVR requirements apply.” Macquarie home loan rates page, re-read at 12:35 AEST, 3 October 2026, https://www.macquarie.com.au/home-loans/home-loan-rates.html: “1 year fixed rate ° ≤ 70% 6.49% pa”; two to five years 6.59, 6.59, 6.64 and 6.64% pa, the same as on 30 September. The differences from the pre-June rates are THE RORT’s arithmetic.
  47. OfficialNAB: fixed rate home loan page, https://www.nab.com.au/personal/home-loans/nab-fixed-rate-home-loan, fetched 12:40 AEST, 3 October 2026, and re-read unchanged at 13:50 AEDT, 4 October 2026: “Information and rates are correct as at 2 October 2026 and are subject to change.” Owner-occupier principal and interest, every loan to value band to 80%, one to five years: 6.79, 6.81, 6.92, 6.92 and 6.94% p.a.; investor principal and interest 6.84, 6.89, 6.97, 6.97 and 6.99; owner-occupier and investor interest only 6.94, 6.99, 7.07, 7.07 and 7.09 (loan to value ratio 60% or less). Offer box: “This offer is for new owner occupier ... principal and interest home loans where the customer takes a 2 year fixed rate NAB Tailored Home Loan and has a deposit of 20% or more of the property value (Maximum permitted loan to value ratio of 80%).” The page describes “fixed interest rates that won’t change during the fixed term”. Web-archive copies of the same page: 15 September 2026, https://web.archive.org/web/20260915124521id_/https://www.nab.com.au/personal/home-loans/nab-fixed-rate-home-loan, fetched 12:57 AEST, 3 October 2026, stamped “correct as at 14 September 2026” (owner-occupier principal and interest 6.44, 6.34, 6.49, 6.49 and 6.49; owner-occupier interest only 6.79, 6.74, 6.89, 6.89, 6.89; investor interest only 6.64, 6.54, 6.69, 6.69, 6.69); 25 September 2026, https://web.archive.org/web/20260925123138id_/https://www.nab.com.au/personal/home-loans/nab-fixed-rate-home-loan, fetched 12:50 AEST, 3 October 2026, stamped “correct as at 23 September 2026” (owner-occupier principal and interest 6.59, 6.49, 6.64, 6.64 and 6.64). Every one of the page’s 80 fixed rates (four products, five terms, four loan to value bands) is 0.15 higher on the 25 September copy than on the 15 September copy, and the band above 80% sits 0.10 above the others on all three dates (THE RORT’s comparison). No archived copy exists between 25 September and 2 October.
  48. TradeNAB’s 22 July fixed-rate cut. Savings.com.au, news article published 22 July 2026, https://www.savings.com.au/news/nab-cuts-fixed-home-loan-rates, fetched 12:28 AEST, 3 October 2026, and 13:52 AEDT, 4 October 2026: “a cut of 20 basis points” to “6.34% p.a.” (two-year owner-occupier); “The best new fixed rate for investors is 6.44% p.a.” (principal and interest, two years); “Investor fixed home loans for both P&I and interest-only (IO) repayments have been cut across the board by 15 basis points.” Canstar, news article of 22 July 2026, https://www.canstar.com.au/news/nab-cuts-fixed-rates-ahead-of-rba-august-decision/, fetched 12:28 AEST, 3 October 2026, and 13:52 AEDT, 4 October 2026, table: “1-year 6.49% 6.44% -0.05 / 2-year 6.54% 6.34% -0.20”. No source read shows NAB’s three- to five-year rates on 22 July.
  49. OfficialNAB: Home Loan General Terms, the edition on NAB’s site on 4 October 2026 (footer “©2024 National Australia Bank Limited ... A164714-1024”), https://www.nab.com.au/content/dam/nabrwd/documents/terms-and-conditions/loans/home-loan-general-terms.pdf, fetched 13:50 AEDT, 4 October 2026. Benefits of fixed rates: “Any rise in interest rates won’t be passed onto you while your rate is fixed”. Fixed interest rates: “automatically change to the applicable variable rate, unless you choose to apply for another fixed rate period and we agree to it”. Section 2.4: “Variable rate changes will be available directly on the NAB website on the day the change commences”. Section 2.5: “our applicable advertised fixed indicator rate that’s published on the day the fixed rate period begins (or the most recent advertised rate if nothing has been published on that day)”; “We’ll then apply any applicable margins outlined in your Offer Letter”. Fixed rate expiry help page (“Information is correct as at 19 April 2024”), https://www.nab.com.au/help-support/personal-banking/manage-home-loan/fixed-rate-expiry, same day: “When your fixed rate period ends, your home loan will automatically roll onto a variable rate, unless you arrange to re-fix your loan before your fixed rate expires.” “Approximately one month before your fixed rate period expires, we’ll send you a reminder letter where you can find your new interest rate.” Rate Lock page, https://www.nab.com.au/personal/home-loans/nab-fixed-rate-home-loan/rate-lock, same day: “Rate Lock is not available when: / Rolling from an existing fixed rate term on to a new fixed rate term / Fixing an existing variable rate home loan”. None of these pages defines the “applicable advertised fixed indicator rate” or gives a re-fix rate table.
  50. PrimaryRBA: Statement on Monetary Policy, November 2023, domestic financial conditions. https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2023/nov/domestic-financial-conditions.html. And RBA Bulletin, Box A: bank funding and the recent tightening of monetary policy (18 April 2024). https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2024/apr/bank-funding-and-the-recent-tightening-of-monetary-policy.html. RBA raised the cash rate target 425 basis points; the average outstanding variable rate increased by around 70 basis points less than the cash rate between May 2022 and September 2023. The same source as in this series' articles 'The two inflations' [6] and 'Who rate rises helped' [16].
This piece is one node in the model. Every entity it names has a dossier that assembles itself from every article mentioning it. Follow the names, and the case, through the record.
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