Polymarket

Status Tracked

The prediction market where US$529 million was traded on contracts tied to the timing of the Iran bombing, including six newly created accounts that profited about US$1 million by betting the strike would land by 28 February 2026.

Last on record: 2026-09
Named in: 2 articles
Across: 1 case

Named in 2 articles across 1 case 5 connections: companies 2, regulators and bodies 1, people 2

Key figure on file

At least 50 accounts

The number of brand-new Polymarket accounts that placed substantial ‘yes’ bets on a US-Iran ceasefire in the hours and minutes before Trump announced… OPB / NPR, 10 April 2026

2

Articles naming it

1

Cases it recurs across

5

Linked in the graph

1

Figures on file

Fig. 01 / Where this name appears

The War TradeAt least 50 accountsThe number of brand-new Polymarket accounts that placed substantial ‘yes’ bets on a US-Iran ceasefire in the hours and minutes before Trump announc…2 articles →

Fig. 01Source: article scan · every article naming itAs of 2026‑09Auto-assembled

Fig. 02 / On the record

At least 50 accountsThe number of brand-new Polymarket accounts that placed substantial ‘yes’ bets on a US-Iran ceasefire in the hours and minutes before Trump announced it, several of them making that single bet and nothing else through their accounts, despite what public reporting described as signs that negotiations had collapsed.Source: OPB / NPR, 10 April 2026Ninety-seven per cent →

Fig. 02Source: figures on file for this name, each tied to the article it came fromAs of 2026‑09Auto-assembled

Fig. 03 / Named together

The 5 names most often in the same articles as Polymarket. A line's weight, and the number by each name, is how many articles name both. Grey chords join the neighbours most often named together themselves (two articles or more). Circles are people and organisations, squares are mechanisms. Named together is all this shows: it is not a finding about what the relationship is.

Fig. 03Source: article scan · articles naming bothAs of 2026‑09Auto-assembled