Sixteen minutes
The United States went to war with Iran on 28 February 2026 from a ballroom at Mar-a-Lago. The record since then is not a finding of insider trading. It is a sequence of dated trades, in the president’s own accounts, in oil futures minut…
On 23 March 2026, in the sixteen minutes between 6:49 a.m. and 7:05 a.m. New York time, oil and stock futures moved on no announced news, and Donald Trump then posted that strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure would pause. Those minutes have drawn a Senate letter, a House member’s regulator request, and a CFTC probe. They have not drawn a finding that anyone traded on inside information.
The sixteen minutes are one entry in a longer, dated record: accounts in the president’s name buying oil, gas and defence stocks through the war his administration was fighting; prediction markets that took bets on the war’s timing before it began; and the only person penalised so far for trading on nonpublic government information, a former White House teleprompter operator who bet on Trump’s own speeches. This article sets out the dates and sizes, with every denial printed beside the allegation it answers. The prediction market that took those bets is the subject of the next article; what the same record shows in Australia is the subject of the three that follow it.
- February 202628 FebruaryThe United States and Israel strike Iran. US$529 million had traded on Polymarket contracts tied to the timing of the strikes
- March 202623 MarchThe sixteen minutes: futures move on no announced news, then Trump posts that strikes on energy infrastructure will pause. More than US$500 million in oil-futures bets came about fifteen minutes before the post
- April 20267 AprilAbout US$960 million bet on oil prices falling, before Trump announces a two-week ceasefire17 AprilUS$760 million, about twenty minutes before Iran's foreign minister says the Strait of Hormuz is reopening21 AprilUS$430 million, about fifteen minutes before Trump extends the ceasefire
- May 20267 MayBy this date the Justice Department has joined the CFTC, examining at least four oil-futures trades that made more than US$2.6 billion
- August 202628 AugustThe only penalty so far: the CFTC orders Gabriel Perez, a White House teleprompter operator who bet on Trump's speeches, to pay US$172,000 in all
In date order. Spacing is not to scale. No regulator has found that any of these trades used inside information.
Stated in: §01, §02, the opening, §05, §06
01The ballroom
On 28 February 2026, the United States and Israel struck Iran in an operation code-named Operation Epic Fury. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed. 1 The Pentagon records the operation as launched at 1:15 a.m. on 28 February, a Saturday; this article dates the war from those strikes. 38 Trump followed the strikes from a ballroom, not a briefing room, hosting a children’s charity gala at Mar-a-Lago in formal attire before moving behind heavy curtains into a makeshift situation room set up with classified phone lines and monitors. He announced the operation from Mar-a-Lago’s press room in the early hours of Saturday, then went on to a Republican fundraiser, while Vice President Vance watched from the White House Situation Room. 1
“disappeared behind a curtain into a temporary situation room to watch the attacks unfold.”
Trump, according to the Daily Beast · 1 March 2026The fundraiser held as the strikes began was priced at US$1 million per person, attended by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and special envoy Steve Witkoff. Within twenty-four hours, three US service members had been killed and five seriously wounded, according to military officials. 2
Update, 7 October 2026. Some reports give 27 February 2026, the Friday night on which Trump hosted the Mar-a-Lago gala, as the start of the war. This article dates it from the strikes, which the Pentagon records as launched at 1:15 a.m. on Saturday 28 February 2026 38; the first paragraph now says so, and every date in the article and its image is 28 February.
02The bettors
Prediction markets moved before the missiles did. US$529 million was traded on Polymarket contracts tied to the timing of the strikes, a Bloomberg figure reported by TechCrunch. Analytics firm Bubblemaps identified six newly created accounts that together profited about US$1 million betting the strike would happen by 28 February. Bubblemaps chief executive Nicolas Vaiman said information “involving war or conflict” combined with “Polymarket’s anonymity, can create incentives for informed participants to act early.” 4
AFP reported a different figure for the same six accounts: US$1.2 million staked in the hours before the bombing began, comparable to more than US$400,000 wagered on Polymarket in January on Nicolas Maduro’s ouster, hours before US forces seized him. The profit and stake figures describe the same accounts measured two ways; neither is a finding, and no charge has followed either one. 5
03The president’s accounts
Accounts in Donald Trump’s own name traded through the same months, buying gold, treasuries and emerging-market ETFs through early March, then energy and defence stocks by 23 March, before moving into cash the following week. Across the war’s first three months the account made about 3,642 trades, US$220 million to 750 million of volume. 6
“I’ve gone through every president. I don’t think we’ve had any president trade in the stock market.”
Richard Painter · Fortune, 18 May 2026A Trump Organization spokesperson said third-party institutions held “sole and exclusive authority” over the decisions through “automated investment processes”. 6
A separate CNBC reconstruction adds detail to the same dates: eight oil and gas companies bought on 2 March, and sixteen energy purchases on 23 March, the same day Trump postponed threatened strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure before the market opened, and an Exxon sale on 7 April hours before a ceasefire announcement. CNBC estimates the president’s nine largest oil and gas holdings gained US$1.5 million to 4.4 million between the eve of the war and 31 August. 7
CBS News puts first-quarter trading at about 3,600 trades worth US$212 million to 695 million, and cites the Joint Economic Committee Democrats for a rise in the disclosed value of the oil and gas holdings through mid-August. White House spokesman Davis Ingle said the portfolio is independently managed with no family input; others called the pattern tax-loss harvesting, or raised the concern of profiting from instability the president had a role in creating. 8
Trump and Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian signed remotely a fourteen-point framework memorandum on 17 June to end the war. 9 An OGE filing dated 12 August records more than 1,000 trades in June, including Lockheed Martin bought, sold and bought again on 15, 16 and 23 June; the memorandum falls between those trades, and no inference beyond that is drawn. Davis Ingle said there were “no conflicts of interest” and that the assets sit in a trust managed by the president’s children. 10
| Date | Action | Size | Same-day context |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 March 2026 | Newmont (gold) bought | US$50,000 to 100,000 | The war’s first trading day [6] |
| 2 March 2026 | Eight oil and gas companies bought, including Exxon | US$100,001 to 250,000 (Exxon) | Same day [7] |
| 23 March 2026 | Phillips 66, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Lockheed Martin and General Dynamics bought; sixteen energy purchases | US$163,000 to 570,000 (energy purchases) | Trump postponed threatened strikes on energy infrastructure before the market opened [6][7] |
| 7 April 2026 | Exxon sold | US$500,001 to 1 million | Ceasefire announced about two and a half hours after market close [7] |
| 15, 16 and 23 June 2026 | Lockheed Martin bought, sold, bought again | Ranges only, per OGE filing | A framework memorandum to end the war was signed on 17 June, between the trades [9][10] |
04Sixteen minutes
Every trading time here is New York time. At 6:49 a.m. on Monday 23 March 2026, S&P 500 e-mini futures and WTI May futures both spiked in volume with no announced catalyst. About sixteen minutes later, at 7:05 a.m., Trump posted on Truth Social that talks with Iran were progressing and strikes on energy infrastructure were paused; S&P futures rose more than two per cent. 11
Bloomberg measured the same minutes differently: at least six million barrels of Brent and WTI crude were sold in the two minutes from 6:49 a.m., against a five-day average of about 700,000 barrels. 12
Senator Chris Murphy pointed to US$1.5 billion of S&P 500 futures bought while US$192 million of oil futures was sold in the moments before the pause was announced. 13
“Mind blowing corruption.”
Senator Chris Murphy · The Hill, 25 March 2026Rep. Ritchie Torres, on 8 April 2026, put the crude futures bets at more than US$500 million in the roughly fifteen minutes before the post, about nine times the average volume for that time of day, and asked the SEC and CFTC to investigate; crude fell more than 10 per cent. 14
These are three measurements of one event, Bloomberg’s barrel count, Murphy’s dollar figures, Torres’s crude-futures total, not to be added together. AFP reported a market operator’s calculation that put the profit on the Monday trades at US$ tens of millions. 5 No regulator has said the trading was illegal.
Update, 7 October 2026. The year has been added to the date of Rep. Torres’s request (8 April 2026); nothing else in this section has changed.
05The ceasefire day, and the probe
On 7 April 2026, about US$960 million was bet on oil prices falling before Trump announced a two-week ceasefire that evening, Washington time, which was the morning of 8 April in Australia; oil fell about 15 per cent. That was the trade visible at the time. It turned out to be one of four. 153337
“This pattern raises serious questions about whether there has been recurring misappropriation of material nonpublic government information and about the extent to which individuals inside or outside the government have acted on such information.”
Senators Elizabeth Warren and Sheldon Whitehouse, letter to the CFTC · Senate Banking Committee minority, April 2026Reuters reported on 15 April 2026 that the CFTC is investigating oil futures trades on CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange platforms placed shortly before Trump’s Iran policy shifts, at least the 23 March and 7 April instances, and that investigators requested Tag 50 identifications of the entities behind the trades. The CFTC declined to comment; its enforcement director said the agency was “watching” for insider trading, focused on “policing market misconduct and manipulation, especially in energy markets.” 16
By May 2026, the inquiry had names, and a size. The Wall Street Journal reported that the CFTC was examining three firms over the 23 March trades, which were worth more than US$800 million: Qube Research and Technologies, a London investment manager, on about US$5 million in gains; Totsa, the trading arm of the French energy company TotalEnergies, on about US$200,000; and Forza Fund, a fund associated with the China-based Metabit Trading, on about US$10 million. All three denied knowledge of the matter: Qube and the Metabit-linked Forza Fund said they had not been contacted by the regulator, and Totsa said it was unaware of any investigation into its crude oil trading and was firmly committed to complying with all applicable market regulations. 34
And it was not one bet, or two. By 7 May 2026 the Justice Department had joined the CFTC, and the two were examining at least four oil-futures trades that together made more than US$2.6 billion betting prices would drop right before they did. The Justice Department’s side, ABC News and NBC News reported, was led by the United States Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York. The four trades were dated 23 March 2026, more than US$500 million, about fifteen minutes before Trump’s post delaying strikes on energy infrastructure; 7 April 2026, US$960 million, before the ceasefire; 17 April 2026, US$760 million, about twenty minutes before Iran’s foreign minister said the Strait of Hormuz was reopening, the one trade timed to an Iranian statement rather than a Trump one; and 21 April 2026, US$430 million, about fifteen minutes before Trump extended the ceasefire, as Brent fell from US$100.91 to US$96.83 a barrel. The market data the reporting relied on does not identify who placed the trades, and does not prove anyone traded on inside information. 333536
The war did not end there. Trump and Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian signed a fourteen-point framework memorandum on 17 June, reopening the Strait of Hormuz and extending the ceasefire for talks. 9 On 2 and 3 August, Trump called off renewed strikes, citing allied pressure and the “perimeters of a deal” to reopen Hormuz; Brent fell eight per cent to about US$83. 17
After a month-long lull, the US bombed a Hormuz island on 30 August and struck further targets on 1 September. Trump called the strikes “large and powerful”; the IRGC struck US bases in Iraq, the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan in response. 18
By 9 September, Brent stood at US$100.72 a barrel and WTI at US$95.25, with US diesel at a record US$5.94 a gallon, following US strikes on five Iranian tankers and Houthi attacks on Saudi facilities. 19
Update, 7 October 2026. Years have been added to the dates in this section (15 April, May, 7 May, and the four trade dates, all 2026), and the 7 April ceasefire announcement is now marked as the evening of 7 April in Washington, which was the morning of 8 April in Australia; this case’s Australian articles date the ceasefire’s market effect to 8 April for that reason. Reference 37 has been added for the timing of the announcement. No fact has changed.
06The only man who paid
Correction, 7 October 2026. A passage here set out a Financial Times report of 30 March 2026, relayed by Al Jazeera, about the defence secretary, with the Pentagon’s reply and the letters it drew from members of Congress. The report rested on unnamed sources alone. No primary document establishes it; the letters from members of Congress that followed rest on the same report. Under this station’s method an adverse claim resting on an anonymous source alone is cut. The passage has been removed, along with the sentences elsewhere in the article that relied on it.
The only financial penalty imposed by any regulator over trading tied to Trump’s own words or the war fell instead on Gabriel Perez, a White House teleprompter operator who bet on Kalshi between December 2025 and February 2026 on words in Trump’s speeches, using speech texts he had access to before delivery. The CFTC ordered him on 28 August 2026 to repay US$107,500 of profits and pay a US$65,000 civil penalty, US$172,000 in all, with a three-year trading ban. 24
07The product, the family’s other business, and where it stands
Trump Media announced on 16 July a paid feed called Truth API, delivering posts from influential Truth Social accounts, above all the president’s, faster than a regular push notification, aimed at trading firms. “Markets already move on Truth Social posts,” said chief executive Kevin McGurn. 25
The feed went on sale on 1 August for up to US$100,000 a month. Renee Jones, a former senior SEC official, said the offering appeared to run afoul of insider trading laws, and Democratic senators asked the SEC to investigate. 26
“Truth API offers customers the fastest way to ingest publicly available Truth Social data. Critics must have invented a new theory of ‘insider trading’ based on publicly available information.”
Shannon Devine, Trump Media spokeswoman · NPR, 1 August 2026Separate from the trading, the president’s family had substantial crypto income in 2025. His disclosure, released 1 July 2026, reports more than US$1.4 billion of crypto income, its largest lines memecoin royalties of more than US$635 million and World Liberty Financial token sales of more than US$550 million, the token sales up ninefold from US$57 million in 2024, alongside sales of World Liberty business interests and a stablecoin equity sale. “There’s nothing illegal” and “nothing wrong,” Trump told CNBC. 27
World Liberty sold 5.9 billion WLFI tokens privately to undisclosed investors; the Trump family entity DT Marks DEFI is entitled to 75 per cent of token sale proceeds after reserves and expenses, and family members hold 22.5 billion tokens, which have traded about 89 per cent off their peak. 28 The family was entitled to roughly US$500 million from a 2025 deal with the company then called Alt5 Sigma, whose stock has since fallen more than 90 per cent; CNBC found no evidence anyone in Alt5’s August stock sale exploited the relationship. 29
Public Citizen put the family’s total stake at about US$1 billion, with Donald Trump Jr, Eric Trump and Barron Trump each adding about US$133 million to their net worth from it; a UAE entity bought 49 per cent of World Liberty four days before the inauguration, routing US$187 million to the family, and Steve Witkoff, the administration’s Iran negotiator, added US$280 million. 30 Forbes valued Barron Trump at about US$150 million on his presumed WLFI holding; nothing in the record examined for this article shows he has sold or cashed out any of it. 31
On 15 August 2026 the OCC granted World Liberty Trust Co. conditional approval for a bank charter, the first time a sitting president’s family company has been granted bank status. “The most brazen act of self-dealing our financial system has ever seen,” Senator Elizabeth Warren said. 32
None of this is a finding that Trump or anyone around him traded on inside information (corrected 7 October 2026: a name was removed from this sentence; see the correction in the section “The only man who paid”). It is a dated record of trades, letters, a joint Justice Department and CFTC investigation into more than US$2.6 billion of oil-futures bets, and one penalty, paid by a teleprompter operator, not by anyone who traded oil or crude futures. The prediction market where the same war was bet on in yes-or-no shares is where this case turns next; from there it crosses to Australia.
A joint federal probe of more than US$2.6 billion in bets, and one penalty, paid by a teleprompter operator.
If it’s a rort, we cover it.
- Record: article 1 corrected, 7 October 2026The War Trade · one passage removed, 7 October 2026
Read the desk note
UPDATED 7 October 2026 (case: THE WAR TRADE, article 1 of five, Sixteen minutes).
ARTICLE CHANGES. One passage removed, from the section formerly headed “The defence secretary, and the only man who paid”, now headed “The only man who paid”. The passage set out a Financial Times report of 30 March 2026, relayed by Al Jazeera, about the defence secretary, with the Pentagon’s reply and the letters it drew from members of Congress. The report rested on unnamed sources alone. No primary document establishes it; the letters from members of Congress that followed rest on the same report. The station’s method is that no adverse claim about a named person or organisation rests on an anonymous source alone, so the passage is cut and its removal is recorded here. A dated correction stands where the passage was. The mentions of the same report in the standfirst, the introduction, the table of contents, the image and its description, and the record of 10 September were removed or amended to match; the sentence on the first night that named the defence secretary is removed, and his name is taken out of the sentences that say no finding of insider trading has been made, in the article and in the record of 10 September; and references 20 to 23 are withdrawn, their numbers left in place. The same report was also removed from article 3, “The Australian position”, and from the case file and the entity page for the defence secretary; the entity page, which carried no other entry, is removed. No other figure in the article changed.
STILL OPEN: what became of the CFTC’s investigation reported on 15 April 2026, and whether the SEC acts on Truth API, as set out in the record of 10 September 2026.
NEXT DATE: none is fixed by any document read for this correction.
- Record: THE WAR TRADE opened as a case; three measurements of one sixteen-minute window are not three trades to be added togetherThe War Trade · attended 10 September 2026
Read the desk note
ATTENDED 10 September 2026 (case opened: THE WAR TRADE, article 1 of five).
FINDING. Since the United States and Israel struck Iran on 28 February 2026, a dated record has built up around trading tied to the war: US$529 million on Polymarket contracts on the strike’s timing; a sequence of disclosed trades in accounts bearing Donald Trump’s own name across oil, gas, gold and defence stocks; a sixteen-minute window on 23 March between 6:49 a.m. and 7:05 a.m. New York time in which futures volume spiked and Trump then posted that strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure would pause; a set of oil-futures bets on falling prices around the ceasefire, later found by regulators to be at least four trades worth more than US$2.6 billion; a report about the US defence secretary, since removed from the article (corrected 7 October 2026: see the record of that date); and a paid data product, Truth API, selling faster access to the president’s own posts. Reuters reported on 15 April 2026 that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission was investigating oil futures trades around the 23 March and 7 April dates; by 7 May the Justice Department had joined it, the two examining at least four trades worth more than US$2.6 billion, the Justice Department side led by the Southern District of New York, with three firms named in reporting on the 23 March trades and all three denying knowledge of any investigation. The only financial penalty any regulator has imposed over trading connected to this record fell on Gabriel Perez, a former White House teleprompter operator, fined and banned on 28 August 2026 for betting on Trump’s own speeches on Kalshi. Separately, the president’s 2025 financial disclosure reports more than US$1.4 billion in crypto income, its largest lines memecoin royalties and World Liberty Financial token sales, from a business whose value moves with the same office. No court, regulator or congressional committee has found that Trump or anyone in his circle traded on inside information (corrected 7 October 2026: a name was removed from this sentence; see the record of that date); this article states that plainly and does not go further than the record does.
ARTICLE CHANGES. Case opened. Article 1, “Sixteen minutes”, published, covering the US record: the trades, the sixteen minutes, the four-trade US$2.6 billion probe, the only penalty, and the family’s crypto income. The case now carries five published articles.
STILL OPEN: what became of the CFTC’s investigation reported on 15 April 2026; whether the SEC acts on Truth API; and how the same pattern reads against Australian markets and Australian office-holders, which the next four articles in this case take up.
NEXT DATE: none is fixed by any document read for this article. Watch for the next public step in the joint Justice Department and CFTC investigation reported through 7 May 2026, and for the four articles that follow this one in the case.
- Primary
- the document itself: legislation, a court record, a filing, a regulator’s own publication
- Official
- the organisation’s own statement about itself
- Masthead
- a news organisation with a corrections policy, reporting the primary document
- Trade
- specialist or trade press
- Aggregator
- republishes others’ work
A check appears under a source only where one is on record: a machine test of whether the link loads, and, where the desk has made the call, whether the document exists and whether it carries the claim. Nothing is shown for a check that is not on record. What these checks mean
- MastheadNBC News, ‘report on how Trump waged the Iran war from a Mar-a-Lago situation room’ (7 March 2026). https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-wages-iran-war-situation-room-mar-lago-rcna261389 Supports: the Operation Epic Fury strikes, Khamenei’s death, and Trump’s movements between the gala, the makeshift situation room and the fundraiser that night.
- MastheadThe Daily Beast, ‘report on the Republican fundraiser held at Mar-a-Lago as the Iran strikes began’ (1 March 2026). https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-hosts-big-money-party-as-missiles-are-fired-at-americans/ Supports: the US$1 million fundraiser price, Rubio and Witkoff’s attendance, the quoted description of Trump behind the curtain, and the casualty figures.
- PrimaryUS Department of War, ‘Trump Renames DOD to Department of War’ (5 September 2025). https://www.war.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/4295826/trump-renames-dod-to-department-of-war/ Supports: the executive order authorising Secretary of War as a secondary title for Pete Hegseth.
- AggregatorTechCrunch via Yahoo Finance, ‘report on US$529 million traded on Polymarket around the timing of the Iran strikes’ (2 March 2026). https://finance.yahoo.com/news/polymarket-saw-529m-traded-bets-190535088.html Supports: the Polymarket trading volume, the six Bubblemaps accounts, and Nicolas Vaiman’s quoted comment.
- AggregatorAFP via Malay Mail, ‘report on suspicious oil and S&P futures trades ahead of Trump’s Iran posts’ (28 March 2026). https://www.malaymail.com/news/money/2026/03/28/this-is-unbelievable-corruption-us-lawmakers-question-fishy-trades-that-moved-oil-sp-futures-before-trumps-iran-posts/214226 Supports: the US$1.2 million staked across the six accounts, the Maduro comparison, the Libowitz, Lynch and Murphy quotes, and the tens-of-millions profit estimate.
- MastheadFortune, ‘report on Trump family trading and conflicts of interest during the Iran war’ (18 May 2026). https://fortune.com/2026/05/18/trump-stock-trading-iran-war-conflict-of-interest-ethics/ Supports: the dated sequence of trades in Trump’s accounts from 2 to 23 March, the 3,642-trade total, and the Painter and Trump Organization quotes.
- MastheadCNBC, ‘report on Trump’s oil and gas holdings and trades during the Iran war’ (9 September 2026). https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/09/trump-oil-gas-holdings-iran-war.html Supports: the 2 March eight-company purchases, the 23 March energy purchases and strike postponement, the 7 April Exxon sale, the nine-holding gain estimate, and the Greytak quote.
- MastheadCBS News, ‘report on Trump’s oil, gas and stock trades during the Iran war’ (29 August 2026). https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trumps-oil-gas-stock-trades-iran-war/ Supports: the Exxon price move after the 7 April sale, the first-quarter trade totals, the JEC valuation figures, and the Ingle, Salem and Sherman quotes.
- MastheadNBC News, ‘report on the US-Iran fourteen-point framework and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz’ (17 June 2026). https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/strait-hormuz-reopen-us-lift-iran-sanctions-14-point-deal-seeking-end-rcna350513 Supports: the 17 June framework memorandum between Trump and President Pezeshkian, and the Hormuz reopening terms.
- MastheadThe New Republic, ‘report on Trump’s investments in defence contractors during the Iran war’ (27 August 2026). https://newrepublic.com/post/214840/trump-invests-defense-contractors-iran-war-stock-trades Supports: the June Office of Government Ethics filing, the Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, General Dynamics and RTX trades, and Ingle’s comment.
- MastheadCNBC, ‘report on the volume spike in stock and oil futures minutes before Trump’s market-turning post’ (23 March 2026). https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/23/volume-in-stock-and-oil-futures-surged-minutes-before-trumps-market-turning-post.html Supports: the 6:49 a.m. futures volume spike, the absence of a catalyst, and the 7:05 a.m. post and market reaction.
- MastheadBloomberg, ‘report on the spike in oil market trades ahead of Trump’s Iran pivot post’ (24 March 2026). https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-24/oil-market-sees-spike-in-trades-ahead-of-trump-s-iran-pivot-post Supports: the six-million-barrel figure sold in the two minutes from 6:49 a.m., against the five-day average.
- MastheadThe Hill, ‘report on Senator Murphy’s comments on oil and Iran insider trading concerns’ (25 March 2026). https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5798756-murphy-trump-oil-iran-insider-trading/ Supports: Senator Murphy’s US$1.5 billion futures and US$192 million oil figures, and his quoted comment.
- OfficialRep. Ritchie Torres, press release demanding that the SEC and CFTC investigate suspicious oil futures trades made ahead of Trump’s Iran announcement (8 April 2026). https://ritchietorres.house.gov/posts/rep-torres-demands-sec-and-cftc-investigate-suspicious-oil-futures-trade-made-ahead-of-trump-iran-announcement Supports: the more than US$500 million crude futures bet figure and the ninefold volume comparison.
- OfficialUS Senate Banking Committee minority (Warren, Whitehouse), press release on the probe of suspicious oil trades surrounding Trump’s Iran announcements (April 2026). https://www.banking.senate.gov/newsroom/minority/warren-whitehouse-probe-suspicious-oil-trades-surrounding-trump-iran-announcements Supports: the ceasefire-day oil bet, the 15 per cent oil price fall, and the Warren-Whitehouse letter quote.
- AggregatorReuters via Yahoo Finance, ‘report on US probes into suspicious oil trades’ (15 April 2026). https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/commodities/articles/us-probes-suspicious-oil-trades-185104849.html Supports: the CFTC investigation into the 23 March and 7 April trades, the Tag 50 requests, and the enforcement director’s comment.
- MastheadNPR, ‘report on Trump calling off a renewed strike against Iran, citing a close deal’ (3 August 2026). https://www.npr.org/2026/08/03/nx-s1-5917167/trump-calls-off-strike-against-iran-says-a-deal-is-close Supports: the 2 and 3 August stand-down, the Saudi Arabia reference, and the Brent price fall.
- MastheadNBC News, ‘report on US strikes on Iran and Trump’s comments on their scale’ (2 September 2026). https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/us-launched-large-powerful-strikes-iran-trump-says-rcna595581 Supports: the 30 August and 1 September strikes, Trump’s quoted comments, and the IRGC’s retaliatory strikes.
- MastheadFortune / AP, ‘report on oil prices passing US$100 and record diesel prices’ (9 September 2026). https://fortune.com/2026/09/09/oil-prices-100-gas-diesel-middle-east/ Supports: the 9 September Brent, WTI and diesel prices, and the tanker and Houthi strikes cited as the cause.
- Withdrawn 7 October 2026. The passage this reference supported was removed; see the correction in the section “The only man who paid”.no link supplied
- Withdrawn 7 October 2026. The passage this reference supported was removed; see the correction in the section “The only man who paid”.no link supplied
- Withdrawn 7 October 2026. The passage this reference supported was removed; see the correction in the section “The only man who paid”.no link supplied
- Withdrawn 7 October 2026. The passage this reference supported was removed; see the correction in the section “The only man who paid”.no link supplied
- MastheadCBS News / AP, ‘report on the fine imposed on a former White House teleprompter operator for insider bets on Kalshi’ (28 August 2026). https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ex-white-house-teleprompter-operator-fined-insider-bets-kalshi-gabriel-perez/ Supports: the Gabriel Perez case, the CFTC’s penalty and finding, and Kalshi’s account freeze and referral.
- MastheadReuters via NBC News, ‘report on Trump Media’s early-access Truth Social posts product’ (16 July 2026). https://www.nbcnews.com/business/media/trump-media-early-access-truth-social-posts-rcna587912 Supports: the Truth API announcement, its description and purpose, and the McGurn quote.
- MastheadNPR, ‘report on Trump Media’s Truth Social data access product and insider trading concerns’ (1 August 2026). https://www.npr.org/2026/08/01/nx-s1-5912219/trump-truth-social-access-insider-trading Supports: the 1 August sale date and US$100,000 monthly price, the Jones comment, the Devine denial, and the senators’ SEC request.
- MastheadTIME, ‘report on Trump’s 2025 financial disclosure and World Liberty Financial crypto income’ (1 July 2026). https://time.com/article/2026/07/01/trump-2025-financial-disclosure-crypto-world-liberty-financial/ Supports: the US$1.4 billion crypto income figures and the Trump quote.
- TradeUnchained, ‘report that World Liberty Financial quietly sold billions in tokens while early investors remained locked out’ (4 May 2026). https://unchainedcrypto.com/world-liberty-financial-quietly-sold-billions-in-tokens-as-early-investors-remained-locked-out/ Supports: the 5.9 billion WLFI token sale, the DT Marks DEFI 75 per cent entitlement, and the token’s price fall.
- MastheadCNBC, ‘report on Trump, World Liberty Financial and Alt5 Sigma’ (9 June 2026). https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/09/trump-world-liberty-financial-crypto-alt5-sigma.html Supports: the roughly US$500 million Alt5 Sigma entitlement, its stock fall, and CNBC’s finding on the August stock sale.
- TradePublic Citizen, ‘Conflict Coin’ (27 April 2026). https://www.citizen.org/article/trump-crypto-world-liberty-financial-binance-iran-sanctions/ Supports: the family’s roughly US$1 billion stake, the net worth additions to Trump’s children, and the UAE and Witkoff investments.
- MastheadForbes, ‘How 19-Year-Old Barron Trump Is Worth $150 Million’ (6 October 2025). https://www.forbes.com/sites/kylemullins/2025/10/06/how-19-year-old-barron-trump-is-worth-150-million/ Supports: the US$150 million valuation and the 2.25 billion WLFI tokens attributed to Barron Trump.
- MastheadABC News (US), ‘report that a Trump-linked crypto venture, World Liberty, was granted a trust charter’ (15 August 2026). https://abcnews.com/Business/trump-linked-crypto-venture-world-liberty-trust-granted/story?id=135668756 Supports: the OCC’s conditional bank charter approval and the Warren quote.
- MastheadABC News (US), ‘report that the DOJ is probing about US$2.6 billion in oil trades related to Iran’ (7 May 2026). https://abcnews.com/US/doj-probing-26-billion-oil-trades-related-iran/story?id=132738007 Supports: the at-least-four oil-futures trades totalling more than US$2.6 billion, the individual dates and sizes (23 March, 7 April, 17 April, 21 April), the 17 April trade timed to Iran’s foreign minister’s statement, and that the market data does not identify the traders or prove insider trading.
- AggregatorThe Wall Street Journal via AOL / The Independent, ‘report that regulators are looking at three firms over suspicious oil trades before Trump’s Iran announcement’ (20 May 2026). https://www.aol.com/articles/regulators-looking-three-firms-over-190440000.html Supports: the CFTC’s examination of Qube Research and Technologies, Totsa (TotalEnergies) and Forza Fund (Metabit) over the 23 March trades worth more than US$800 million, the approximate gains attributed to each, and their denials.
- MastheadNBC News, ‘report that the DOJ and CFTC are probing oil and prediction-market trades tied to Iran news’ (May 2026). https://www.nbcnews.com/business/energy/doj-probes-oil-prediction-markets-iran-news-rcna344135 Supports: the Justice Department and CFTC examining at least four trades totalling more than US$2.6 billion, and that the Justice Department investigation is led by the US Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York.
- TradeOilPrice.com, ‘Traders placed US$430 million in bets minutes before Trump extended the Iran ceasefire’ (21 April 2026). https://www.oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Traders-Placed-430M-Bets-Minutes-Before-Trump-Extended-Iran-Ceasefire.html Supports: the 21 April US$430 million trade about fifteen minutes before the ceasefire extension with Brent falling from US$100.91 to US$96.83, and the 17 April US$760 million trade about twenty minutes before Iran announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
- MastheadNBC News, "Trump announces 2-week Iran ceasefire after he'd warned 'a whole civilization will die tonight'". https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/trump-threat-whole-civilization-will-die-iran-war-deadline-hormuz-rcna267059 Supports that President Trump announced the two-week ceasefire with Iran on Tuesday 7 April 2026, about 90 minutes before his 8 p.m. Eastern deadline, that is, on the evening of 7 April in Washington.
- PrimaryUS Department of War, "Operation Epic Fury Fact Sheet: The First 13 Days" (12 March 2026). https://media.defense.gov/2026/Mar/12/2003898258/-1/-1/1/OPERATION-EPIC-FURY-FACT-SHEET-THE-FIRST-13-DAYS.PDF Supports: US Central Command commenced Operation Epic Fury at the direction of the President at 1:15 a.m. on 28 February 2026.